The Idaho Vandals look to pick up a road win when they travel into Waldo Stadium to play the Western Michigan Broncos this Saturday evening. The game is expected to start on Saturday, September 16th at 7:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN3. The Broncos are heavy -20.5 favorites and the match-up’s total is down from 58 to 54.
The Vandals were clubbed 44-16 at home by UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels were fired-up after being on the receiving end of the biggest upset in college football history the weekend before. Last Saturday’s setback sent Idaho back to .500 on the season.
Once again, Western Michigan fell short in their attempt to claim a road victory. After losing in a close affair to USC, the Broncos lost 28-14 in a slow paced game against Michigan State. As a result, Western Michigan remains win-less heading into this contest. The Broncos have a 3-1 advantage in the all-time series against the Vandals, including a 45-33 win at home in the most recent match-up in 2014.
Idaho Vandals (1-1)
Idaho was out gained 550-384 in the contest against UNLV. They also gave up 22 first downs and were gashed for three scoring plays of over 60 yards or more. By the time the fourth quarter started, it was too late for the Vandals to come back.
In his last outing quarterback Matt Linehan gave an okay performance. The rifleman completed 22 of 34 passes for 261 yards and one touchdown and one pick. Overall all, Linehan has totaled 36 completions for 424 yards with three end zone strikes and three interceptions. Consequently, the Vandals averaging 22 points per game on 370 total yards of offense.
Idaho uses two different tail backs to help move the chains. Aaron Duckworth leads the Vandals with 37 carries for 222 yards plus a score. His teammate Isaiah Saunders, is the number two option in the system. Saunders has ran the rock 22 times for 105 yards. Both backs will need to contribute as the Western Michigan secondary should have their way against the Idaho passing attack.
Wide receivers Jacob Sannon and Reuben Mwehla lead the Vandals pass catching attack. Sannon has reeled in 15 catches for 151 yards and a score. He plays in the slot and is who Matt Linehan looks to for third down conversions. Mwehla has 10 grabs for 83 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
Defensively, Idaho is holding their opponents to an average of 25 points per contest in 2017. They also are allowing 370 yards of offense which ranks them at 69th in the country. The secondary has performed well but as a team Idaho has only forced one turnover but given away three.
Western Michigan (0-2)
The Broncos are still trying to work out the kinks after last year’s amazing season. Even still, Western Michigan has hung tough in their first two games against Power Five programs. Nevertheless, the Broncos have to get their offense going as they failed to put up an offensive touchdown in last week’s contest.
P.J. Fleck’s old team is 125th in the FBS in passing offense, putting out only 86.5 yards per game through the air. Thankfully, they have found some success on the ground. Coming into this match-up the Broncos are averaging almost 190 rushing yards in their first two games.
Obviously quarterback Jon Wassink needs to step up his game if Western Michigan wants to be competitive in MAC Conference play. So far, Wassink has completed only 22 passes for 146 yards and two interceptions. The only touchdown he has recorded came with his feet.
Western Michigan hangs their hat on their running game, which has answered the call and performed quite well. Three outstanding tail backs share the work-load. LeVante Bellamy leads the team with 21 carries for 169 yards. Senior runner Jamauri Bogan is second with 26 carries for 107 yards and a score. Lastly, Jarvion Franklin also has ran the ball 18 times for 76 yards.
Since the passing game has been atrocious, only receiver D’Wayne Eskridge is really worth mentioning in this write-up. In 2017, Eskridge has five catches for 54 yards and has found his way to pay-dirt on two different occasions.
Defensively, Western Michigan is holding their opponents to an average of 38.5 points per game. Keep in mind that that is against some pretty good teams. They also have given up almost 500 yards per game. Unlike the Vandals, the Broncos have forced 4 turnovers so far in the season and have a turnover margin of +2.
Prediction
Western Michigan has hung tough in their two games against the Trojans and the Spartans. Now, they get to return to the confines of their own home in hopes to pick up their first win of the season.
Las Vegas has this total at 54 and if that’s going to happen the Broncos need to produce in the passing game. Let’s face it, Jon Wassink clearly isn’t Zach Terrell but if he can play a little better, the Broncos have a trio of talented backs that can shoulder the load.
On the other side, the Vandals have a pretty good quarterback but have struggled to run the ball effectively. That’s why the total is scary to me. When you take two schools that are one-dimensional you have the makings for a punt festival. Plus, there will be some turnovers in this game and that could go for or against the over/under.
Instead, the play I like is to take the better quarterback in a bounce back team performance. Play the Vandals to cover the 20.5 points and if that’s too scary, feel free to buy it up a point to -120 and put it in a little two gamer. Either way, I believe Idaho can stick close enough to get the cover in this one.
Trends
The Vandals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Vandals are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Under is 5-2 in the Vandals last 7 games overall.
The Over is 13-6 in the Vandals last 19 non-conference games.
The Broncos are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Over is 6-1 in the Broncos last 7 home games.
The Over is 5-2-1 in the Broncos last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our seventh edition of our College Football Throwdown on Thursday, September 14th. We will be covering all the upcoming action for Saturday’s games. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week. Last week, both EJ and I were a combined 4-0 in our outright dogs to win picks. We also are nailing the action over 60 percent of the time. #moneytreesgrow
