For the Dallas Cowboys (1-0), Week One was a chance to exorcise some demons in beating the New York Giants, a team that knocked them off twice last year. The Denver Broncos (1-0) had to prove not only that they’d picked the right quarterback, but that they could still play some defense with coordinator Wade Phillips gone.
As I mentioned in my previous article, you’ll have to forgive me for the late arrival of these picks. My entire community was attacked by a tree that knocked out the power and internet for hours.
The Game: Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
The History
With the Broncos being an old AFL team and not a very good one at the merger, these two squads didn’t play until December, 1973 and it won’t surprise you to learn that Cowboys dispatched Denver 22-10.
Dallas holds a 7-5 lead in the all time series, but has lost the last five contests from September, 1998 (John Elway) to October, 2013 (Peyton Manning).
The Cowboys longest streak was during those Roger Staubach and Tom Landry years, beginning with that first game and going all the way to a 27-10 Super Bowl victory on January, 15, 1978 in the Louisiana Superdome.
DALLAS COWBOYS (1-0)
Surprise, just as I predicted Ezekiel Elliott remains on the field for the Cowboys and that’s bad news for the Broncos. Regardless of what Denver wants to do on offense, the Cowboys’ strength is their offensive line and they’re four deep at the running back position with Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden and Rod Smith.
Dak Prescott showed that last season wasn’t a fluke, completing 24 of 39 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown. And that was after a slow start where Prescott was tossing a little high. As soon as he settled down, it was cruise control for Dallas.
Is the Cowboys’ defense as good as the unit that held the Giants to just three points or is New York just that bad? This game will show us a lot, not just for Dallas’ ability to slow down the run game, but in covering two elite pass catchers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. They didn’t line up against Odell Beckham Jr. last week.
The key guy for Dallas may be kicker Dan Bailey inside Mile High Stadium. He could put in four field goals in this one.
DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)
By seemingly shutting down operations in the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos made it far too interesting on themselves. You can understand why Vance Joseph, holding a 24-7 lead in the fourth might be inclined to gear it down with Trevor Siemian in at quarterback. It nearly cost him and there’s no chance of this one not going down to the wire.
Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. still make up the no fly zone on defense and the match up with Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley and Terrence Williams should be a battle all day. Von Miller will face off against the best offensive line he’s seen in his career, so don’t be surprised if you get plenty of spot shadows in this one. It should be good.
The Broncos were solid in the run game last week on offense, even though the only touchdown came from a Siemian scramble. Still, between C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, Denver gained 141 yards and I expect them to lean on that in this game too.
The Pick
You can never discount the altitude when a team plays in Denver, so the Cowboys will be sucking wind a lot in this one. I think the way the Broncos want to play offense, running the ball and setting up the play action pass, will keep this one close. Still, it won’t be enough. Dallas just has too many horses to throw out there and I’m very comfortable with that +2.5 line. Cowboys 20, Broncos 17
This week
Strait up: 0-1
Against the spread: 1-0
Season
Straight up: 10-6
Against the spread: 9-7
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