The Virginia Cavaliers make the long trek to the west to play the Boise State Broncos in an ACC vs Mountain West Conference showdown in Idaho. The contest is scheduled to start on Friday, September 22nd at 8:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on the ESPN2 Network. Coming into this match-up, the Broncos are a -11.5 point favorite and the game’s total sits at 51.
The Virginia Cavaliers are fresh off a 38-18 win over offensively challenged Connecticut. In that match-up, Virginia led 24-0 by halftime and never looked back. In all, the Cavaliers racked up over 600 yards of offense. Their offense also was efficient, going seven for 12 on their third down conversions. As a result, Virginia how now climbed back above the .500 mark for the year.
The Boise State Broncos rebounded from their overtime loss to Washington State by knocking off New Mexico 28-14 at home Thursday. In that contest, the Broncos defense created two turnovers that led to two scores. Unfortunately, quarterback Montell Cozart could only lead the offense to 264 total yards. Boise State also has won the only meeting between the programs, taking a 56-14 win on the road in 2015.
Virginia Cavaliers (2-1)
The Cavaliers also bounced back from a defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers when they dumped the Huskies last Saturday. Arguably, it was their best performance in the Bronco Mendenhall era. Now, they will have to prove they can repeat that performance against a much tougher Boise State team.
Virginia has been a predominately pass-oriented offense so far this season. Overall, they are 17th in the country in passing offense throwing for 325 yards per game. To their dismay, the running game hasn’t caught up with the passing attack. Virginia also is 110th in the nation, rushing for only 106 yards per game.
Quarterback Kurt Benkert has played quite well in 2016. The signal-caller has completed 96 of 145 passes for 976 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. Last week he padded his stats nicely, throwing for 455 yards on 30 completions with three scores and his lone interception.
The Virginia running game finally did their part to keep the offense balanced last Saturday. Running back Jordan Ellis toted the rock 20 times for 95 yards and a score. Altogether, he has has 54 carries for 219 yards plus three trips to the promised land. He will need to shoulder more of the load to keep the Broncos guessing this Friday.
Three Cavalier receivers broke the century mark against the Huskies. Apparently, Kurt Benkert is stingy about who to distribute the ball to. Doni Dowling brought in six passes for 136 yards and a score. Andre Levone pitched in another four catches for 125 yards and another score.
Believe it or not, tail back Olamide Zaccheaus is the Cavaliers’ top target. He also broke the century mark and had a touchdown. In all, he has hauled in 26 passes for 250 yards plus two scores.
Defensively, Virginia is solid against the pass. The back half only gives way to about 165 yards per game. That statistic is good for 30th in the nation. The front half is where the work needs to improve. The run-stop is ranked 89th, also giving up 165 yards per match.
Boise State Broncos (2-1)
The Broncos opened up their conference slate by knocking off a resilient Lobo squad on the Smurf Turf. Boise State led just 14-7 after three quarters before pulling away in the fourth. The Idahoans were out gained 277-264, lost the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession battle 33:04 to 26:56 yet emerged victorious.
Quarterback Montell Cozart got the nod for his first Division I start of his career. Surprisingly, he did pretty good against New Mexico. In four quarters of football, he completed 15 of 19 passes for only 139 yards but recorded two touchdowns. There is little doubt he is a better runner than senior Brett Rypien.
In 2017, Cozart has scrambled for a team-high 179 yards with two trips to pay-dirt. Whether he will start for the second straight game is unknown. Rypien is still listed as questionable while he recovers from a head injury he sustained in week two.
Just like the Boise State passing game, the running game has also struggled to put up decent numbers. So far this season, the Broncos rank 89th in the country. As a result, they only tote the rock for just under 150 yards per game. Leading the way is tail backs Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin. Together, they have combined for 170 yards and two scores.
Even though the running game doesn’t boast a premier player, the passing game has one of the best in the country. Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson can be electrifying and score from anywhere on the field at any time. The pass catching stud has nabbed 16 balls for 276 yards and two touchdown grabs. Boise State must look to get him involved to soften up the talented Virginian secondary.
On the defensive side of things, the Broncos did manage to change the game against the Lobos with some timely turnovers. Their secondary will once again be called upon to do the same thing against the Cavaliers passing attack. Their rushing defense has been their anchor, holding opposing offenses to just 98 yards on the ground per game (25th).
Prediction
Virginia may have looked improved against Connecticut but there is a big difference between the Huskies and the Broncos. For the most part, Boise State plays solid at home and sports an amazing front seven. Consequently, they will push the Cavaliers to try and develop a better run game as they’ll try to take the passing game away.
Offensively, Boise State isn’t impressing too many people in 2017. It’s plain to see that graduation and injuries have taken several key pieces from previous years away. The Broncos still are finding away to move the ball when they need to by utilizing Cedrick Wilson and Montell Cozarts’ feet.
Both offenses play right into the wheel house of the opposing defenses in this east coast versus west coast battle. I believe that is why Las Vegas has set this total at 51. They also have the Broncos as an -11.5 point favorite. This is where I suggest you make your play.
The Cavaliers are still an ACC, Power Five conference team and this game isn’t suppose to tout a lot of offense. Because of that, I think the Cavaliers will keep this one close enough with their passing game to get the cover. Virginia almost gets the W in this one losing by the score of 29-24.
Trends
The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Under is 26-10 in the Cavaliers last 36 games following a straight up win.
The Under is 10-4-1 in the Cavaliers last 15 road games.
The Broncos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
The Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 games overall.
The Under is 12-3 in the Broncos last 15 home games.
