Two ACC Rivals are set to meet up down in Doak Campbell Stadium when the N.C. State Wolfpack play the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday at high noon. The football game is scheduled to take place on Saturday, September 23rd at 12:00 p.m. EST. It also can be viewed on the ABC and ESPN2 Networks. Coming into this match-up, the Seminoles are a -13 point favorite and the games total is down a bit from 53 to 51.1.
Thanks to Mother Nature’s Hurricane Irma, 11th ranked Florida State has not participated in a game since their opener against Alabama. Not only did Florida State lose that contest 24-7, but they also lost starting quarterback Deondre Francois for the season. Now, the Seminoles must regroup and get ready for ACC Conference foes N.C. State.
The Wolfpack are fresh off a 49-16 beat down of FCS Furman Paladins. It was a nice cupcake to play after losing to South Carolina in their opener and winning a hard fought contest against Marshall 37-20. Last year, the Seminoles escaped with a 24-20 victory in November on the road.
N.C. State (2-1)
In their win at home against the over-matched Paladins, the Wolfpack decided to put the game in the hands of their rushing attack. Tail back Jaylen Samuels and Nyheim Hines responded by running the ball for over 100 yards and four scores.
Nyheim Hines did most of the work between the 20’s, while Samuels recorded three red zone scores. Samuels also was N.C. State’s leading receiver, catching 6 balls for over 70 yards. Both backs have soft hands and are a threat in the Wolfpack’s passing attack. In fact, Samuels leads the team in receptions with 26.
Quarterback Ryan Finley was asked to manage the offense and keep the chains moving in an efficient manner. Last Saturday, he did just that. It wasn’t a spectacular performance but Finley completed 22 of his 27 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. For the year, he has almost 1,000 yards with six scores and has yet to toss the ball to the other team.
Kelvin Harmon is the Wolfpack’s number one wide out. Although he didn’t post big numbers against Furman, he has more than done his share for the offense. Since opening day, Harmon has reeled in 24 catches for 268 yards and a touchdown grab. Combined with Jaylen Samuels, Ryan Finley has a couple of nice targets in the passing game.
Defensively, NC State is allowing just 342 yards per game in their first three contests. Furthermore, the front seven is a holding teams to only 88 yards rushing per game (11th). Luckily, their 92nd ranked secondary might get a break as Seminole quarterback Deondre Francois is out with a torn patella tendon.
(11) Florida State Seminoles (0-1)
Florida State brings in talented athletes to play at every position so it’s no surprise that they have a very good quarterback behind Francois. However, James Blackman is just a true freshman and will have a lot of pressure on him to produce for a national power-house.
Every dark cloud has a silver lining and having two extra weeks of practice might be just what the doctor ordered. Remember, the Seminoles missed their last to games against Louisiana-Monroe on Sept. 9 and Miami-Florida on Sept. 16. James Blackmon will also get the opportunity to have the home crowd behind him in his first start as a Seminole.
In their loss to the Crimson Tide, original starter Deondre Francois completed 19 of 33 passes for 210 yards and one touchdown. Unfortunately, he also threw two interceptions. They also struggled on special teams having a punt blocked, a field goal blocked and a fumble on a kickoff return.
The Seminoles were also never able to establish the running game, as they were held to just 40 yards on 27 carries. Running back Cam Akers led the way with just 30 yards on 10 attempts. The Seminoles were down by just three at the half at 10-7, but could not score in the second half.
In their first outing of 2017, the Florida State defense was solid. Against Alabama’s potent offense, they only allowed 269 total yards from scrimmage. The Crimson Tide did run the ball effectively, amassing 173 yards.
The back half is where the defense shined, allowing just under 100 yards down the field. Facing Alabama in their opener wasn’t easy but they did manage to hold them down. Considering they were on the field for two thirds of the contest.
Prediction
Well, this game has a lot of question marks surrounding the quarterback position for Florida State. Nobody has seen James Blackmon play at this level. That’s why it’s hard to get a read on just how effective their passing attack will be. I expect that the Seminoles will look to run the ball early and often to make things simpler for their new signal-caller.
N.C. State hangs their hat defensively on stopping the run, so I’m thinking we might not see many points from the Seminole offense, especially early. The way Florida State’s defense performed against Alabama, I also wonder just how effective Ryan Finley will be. With that being the case, we could see a lot of hand-offs in this ACC affair.
Line setters have the games total at 51.5. Obviously, the public is seeing what I am seeing because it is down 1.5 points from Monday. I fully expect that it will drop further when people find out about the Wolfpack’s front seven. That is why I am suggesting that you make your play on the under 51.5 right now before it drops to 48.
Apparently, odds makers don’t give the N.C. State offense much of a chance because the Seminoles are still an -11 point favorite despite losing their starting quarterback. Well, I certainly don’t expect fireworks from the Wolfpack but do think they can move the ball enough to stay within the 13 points. Take N.C. State to cover the 13 and also take the under 51.1. There are just too many unknowns to risk your hard earned cash on the over or an unproven Seminole offense.
Trends
The Wolfpack are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games following a bye week.
The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in the Wolfpack last 4 games overall.
The Over is 6-0-1 in the Wolfpack last 7 games in September.
The Under is 5-2 in the Seminoles last 7 conference games.
The Under is 7-3 in the Seminoles last 10 games overall.
