The (8) Michigan Wolverines claw their way into Ross-Ade Stadium to face-off with the surging Purdue Boilermakers in this BIG-10 Conference match-up. The game is schedule to hit the field on Saturday, September 23rd at 4:00 p.m. EST. Line setters have the Wolverines as a -10 point favorite and the contest’s total is only up a half point to 52. The contest can be seen on FOX for your weekend entertainment.
The Michigan Wolverines are heading into this game off of a 22-13 victory over the Air Force Falcons in the Big House. The Michigan offense continually sputtered in the red zone. As a result, the Wolverines settled for five field goals in their so-so performance.
On the other hand, the Purdue Boilermakers went into Missouri and took it to the Tigers last Saturday. Purdue won 35-3 and had this game wrapped up before half-time. Pretty good considering they were favored to lose by a touchdown.
After three games the Boilermakers have exceeded expectations. They only lost by seven points to Louisville in week one and rebounded with two blowout victories. These programs last met back in the 2012 season with Michigan coming away with a 44-13 win.
(8) Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
The Michigan Wolverines only scored one touchdown in their 29-13 home win against Air Force in their third straight victory. Quarterback Wilton Speight was mediocre at best, connecting on 14 of 23 passes for 169 yards with no touchdowns. The senior has struggled to put up huge numbers. Through three games, he has collected 571 passing yards with three scores and two picks. However, the Wolverines are not a pass-heavy foot ball team.
Running back Ty Isaac was the best player on the field in the win for the Wolverines. Altogether, he rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries which was good for an average of 5.6 yards per carry. The senior tail back is having a good year, accumulating 336 yards through three games. He has yet to step foot in the end zone as a result of a hand off.
Wide out Tarik Black led all Michigan receivers with five grabs for 55 yards. The freshman pass catcher is off to a promising start in 2017. Furthermore, he leads the Wolverines with 149 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Michigan’s offense relied on five field goals last week and will need to step up their offense heading into Big-10 play.
Michigan’s defense was solid for the third straight week. Against the Falcons, they allowed only 232 total yards and only 64 passing yards. Defensive end Devin Bush made another sack and has now collected 3.5 on the season. So far, the Wolverines’ defense has proved early on that they have reloaded in 2017.
Purdue Boilermakers (2-1)
The Purdue Boilermakers scored 28 unanswered points in the first half over the Missouri Tigers. The offensive output put the contest away in their dominating 35-3 road win. Starting signal-caller David Blough was accurate, converting on 22 of 28 passes for 187 yards with one end zone toss. The junior quarterback has been sharp in all three games, notching 597 receiving yards with six touchdowns and only two picks.
The Boilermakers will also run a sophomore quarterback Elijah Sindelar out onto the field. He saw some action last week as well, throwing for 85 yards with one score and one interception. David Blough and Sindelar have already combined for ten touchdowns this season.
Running back Tario Fuller has improved for the second straight week. Against the Tigers, he rushed for 90 yards on 19 carries and a trip tom pay-dirt. The sophomore tail back has now collected a team-leading 261 rushing yards.
More importantly, he is becoming a threat to opposing defenses. Now, opponents are having to move move an extra defender up to play run-stop. I suspect that is why the Boilermakers quarterbacks have been thriving over the last two weeks.
Purdue’s leading receiver Cole Herdman only made one catch last week against Missouri. However, it was a big 56-yard reception to fire up the offense. The Boilermakers quarterbacks have spread the rock around nicely.
Their offensive now features five receivers with at least 100 yards. Let’s not forget about the crafty pass catcher Jackson Anthrop. He leads this unit with 17 catches and is the go-to guy when the Boilermakers look to convert their third and longs.
An unexpected contribution came in the form of the Purdue Boilermaker defense. They were outstanding in the win over Missouri last week. The squad allowed only 203 total yards, and also limited Missouri to a 2 for 11 mark on third downs. Purdue also only allowed 70 rushing yards in a game thus far. That my friends, is a good sign going into a contest against the Wolverines steady rushing attack.
Prediction
I am not going to pull any punches in this BIG-10 affair in Indiana. I am taking the +10 points with the Boilermakers in this game. Momentum can be everything in this finicky game of football, and that sits with the home team in this match-up. Besides, Purdue is off to a tremendous start and have shown great improvement from last season.
Furthermore, the Boilermakers front seven has been a surprise, allowing only 129 yards per contest (51st). This gives me confidence because the Wolverines have looked average at best when they are forced to throw the ball down the field. Conversely, the Purdue offense has also been solid, giving me even more confidence they can keep this one very close.
The bottom line is, the Michigan offense has struggled in the red zone, scoring just one touchdown in ten attempts. Apparently, they didn’t figure things out in their last game because they again went 0-4 and kicked their way to the win. and went 0 for 4 in the red zone against Air Force last week.
Look, the 10 point spread is crying for me to buy it a half a point a get a little insurance. If I decide that’s the case on Friday, I certainly will. Heck, with all the public always going head over heels for the Wolverines, I might not have to by then.
The odds gurus also have set this over/under at 52. I think this could be a possibility if the Michigan offense starts to click. With that being said, I’m not suggesting you play it until you see the results from the previous week. So there you have it, take the Boilermakers with the 10 points or buy it up if you have to. I’m telling you now, if they upset Michigan outright, It wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Trends
The Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their seven games overall.
The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record.
The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on grass.
The Over is 8-1 in the wolverines last nine road games.
The Over is 12-4 in the Wolverines last 16 conference games.
The Over is 11-2 in the boilermakers last 13 home games.
The over is 9-2 in the boilermakers last 11 conference games.
