The Duke Blue Devils were not supposed to be a factor in the ACC Coastal Division. They were coming off a miserable season and had a lot of replacements to make on defense. North Carolina entered this season just two years removed from an 11-3 record and a division championship. The Tar Heels sported the No. 2 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Mitchell Trubisky. North Carolina is supposed to have more resources and therefore more upside. Yet, guess which team is favored in this rivalry game on Saturday, hosted by UNC?
Details
Odds: Blue Devils -2.5
Date & Time: Saturday, September 23, 3:30 PM ET
Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Broadcast: ESPNU
Reasons To Bet On The Duke Blue Devils
The North Carolina defense is terrible. It has played three games this season, and while UNC defeated Old Dominion in Week 3, the Tar Heels did not measure up against their two opponents from Power Five conferences. North Carolina allowed 35 points to California in Week 1 and 47 to Louisville in Week 2. This defense is not fast enough, and it is generally not in the right positions on plays. It is true that the quality of players on the other team has something to do with how well a defense plays, so while North Carolina’s defense is a problem for the Tar Heels, the opposition has something to do with it, too. Duke has been very good on offense this season.
The Blue Devils have scored at least 34 points in consecutive games against Power Five opponents Northwestern and Baylor the past two weeks. Quarterback Daniel Jones threw a lot of interceptions last season as a freshman. This year as a sophomore, he seems to have learned a lot about how to play the position under one of the better quarterback teachers in the country, coach David Cutcliffe. The combination of North Carolina’s poor defense and Jones’ skill as the quarterback of the Duke offense gives the Blue Devils a great chance to score 35 or more points, which if they are able to do, they should be able to win the game.
Reasons To Bet On The North Carolina Tar Heels
The Duke revolution might be real, but the thing to reconsider about the Blue Devils is that they beat Northwestern and Baylor at home. This will be Duke’s first road game of the season, which is always a transition and something to be cautious of in terms of gauging the outcome of a game. North Carolina might not merit a full vote of confidence in this game, but there is ample reason to doubt Duke and not fully trust the Blue Devils’ fast start. Last season, Duke was 1-5 on the road and 0-4 on the road in ACC games. The idea that Duke must overcome home-road splits contains some evidence. North Carolina might have a 1-2 record compared to Duke’s 3-0, but the Tar Heels might play with more urgency.
Outlook
The Duke Blue Devils might struggle at times – this game feels like a very close one – but the North Carolina defense is too leaky and inconsistent to grab a firm hold of this game. Unless or until the UNC defense can prove it can play at a higher level, Duke inspires slightly more trust.
The other thing to factor is that North Carolina used to have an explosive offense. That used to mask their defensive woes as they would outscore their opponents and worry less on the defensive side of things. When you look at the scoreboard this season, while they hung 53 on Old Dominion last week, they also scored just 35 and 30 the prior weeks. While that’s still a lot of points, their offense disappeared in critical times (read: down the stretch) in both games against California and Louisville. Duke is a team on the rise while North Carolina appears to be on the delince. Lay the field goal with the Duke Blue Devils in this spot.
Prediction: Blue Devils -2.5
Click here to bet on the college football season right now. DSI has a full list of spreads, totals and props for every single game on the board. Get all of the latest lines that you need to get a piece of the action!
