It’s the battle of the Bulldogs when (19) Mississippi State takes on (12) Georgia between the hedges in an SEC Conference showdown on Saturday. The contest is scheduled to go down on Saturday, September 23rd at 7:00 p.m. EST. The game between the two ranked foes can be seen on ESPN for your evening entertainment. As of now, Georgia is a -4.5 favorite and the game’s total sits at 48.
The Georgia Bulldogs now sit at 3-0 as they have dispatched of their first three non-conference opponents in 2017. Most notably, was the victory on the road 20-19 over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. In this match, the Bulldogs will try to control the clock with their run game, keeping stellar Bulldog quarterback Nick Fitzgerald on the sidelines.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are fresh off one of their programs biggest victories of all-time. The Bulldogs took care of business in a decisive fashion when they beat down the LSU Tigers to the tune of 37-7. Now, they once again are looking for respect as Las Vegas again places them in an underdog roll on the road versus Georgia.
(19) Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0)
Well, here we go again. The undefeated Mississippi State Bulldogs head into Georgia after a dominating performance against the LSU Tigers. Apparently, odds makers weren’t that impressed because they are -4.5 point favorites. Maybe it’s because their on the road, where they haven’t been very successful over the past decade.
In their victory over the LSU Tigers, dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald did his part to keep his team undefeated. In that game, he threw the ball 23 times and completed 15 passes. He also threw for two touchdowns and no picks. Furthermore, he ran the ball from under center for 88 yards and another two trips to pay-dirt. Now that’s some good production against a defense like LSU.
Finally, Nick Fitzgerald got the help he was looking for from his running game. Tail back Aeris Williams had a big game to keep the Tigers honest. In all, he ran for 146 yards on 23 carries. Combined with Fitzgerald, the running game was electric last Saturday evening.
Wide receiver Keith Mixon did most of the heavy lifting against the Tigers secondary. Throughout the game, he reeled in six balls for just under 100 yards and a score. Teammate Donald Gray is actually the leading receiver for the Bulldogs. He has caught 10 balls for 95 yards and a touchdown.
The biggest story for the Bulldogs in their victory over LSU was the play of their defense. They only allowed seven points and held them to only 270 total yards. So far in 2017, the Bulldogs are ranked third in Division I football in total yards per game (206). They also are sixth in the country allowing only nine points per game. We’ll see if this holds true against an SEC opponent on the road.
(12) Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
The Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Jacob Eason has missed the last two games with a sprained knee ligament. Eason, went down in a season-opening 31-10 win over Appalachian State.
Back-up Jake Fromm is off to a steady start. Fromm passed for 143 yards and a touchdown after replacing Eason in the opener and through three games he has five touchdowns compared to only one interception. He will be asked to manage this game and not turn the ball over against the Bulldogs.
Obviously, Georgia is going to look to their running game to get the job done this weekend. Running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel have been a great collaboration out of the back field. Together, the two tail backs have collected 450 yards and six touchdowns. Chubb takes the most carries, running for 290 yards and four scores.
Terry Godwin and Javon Wims are the top two wide outs for the Georgia Bulldogs. Combined, they have caught 12 passes for 255 yards receiving and four trips to the end zone. Four other wide outs have caught at least four passes and make covering the top two looks a larger problem for Mississippi State. It will be interesting to see if some big gains come from play-action if this unit can establish a running game.
Well one things for sure, Georgia has shut down teams’ rushing attacks so far this year. Since they started the season, the Bulldogs are 5th in the country yielding only 71 points per game. They also are only allowing 14 points per football game (21st). They certainly will be going up against the best quarterback they have faced when Nick Fitzgerald takes the field on Saturday.
Prediction
Complete blowouts of Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech were nice, but Mississippi State took its to another level against LSU. In addition to Fitzgerald and the offense, the Bulldog’s defense limited the Tigers to 270 yards of total offense. This is why the 4.5 spread confuses me a bit in this match-up. Again, it’s clear to me that their win over LSU didn’t make the experts believe they are for real. Well I beg to differ.
Whether Eason or Fromm take the field, it is clear to you and me and everyone else that Georgia will try to run the ball to victory. The problem with that is that Mississippi State has been solid against the run in 2017. Whoever starts under center, they will have to produce in the passing game. That could be easier said then done but the talent is there for that to happen.
The one sure thing we do know is that Nick Fitzgerald has proven to be one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the FBS. I love that when i’m taking a dog to cover on the road in an SEC match-up. So, give me the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the half point hook in this game.
Las Vegas also has the total at 48. That is because both of these schools have done their job on the defensive side of the ball. That may be the truth but I think both of these clubs will find away to score in the mid to high 20’s and that’s good enough to hit the over. Just take Mississippi State and the +4.5 with the better quarterback and root for some points in a good game in the deep south.
Trends
The Georgia Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last 4 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Bulldogs last 6 conference games.
The Under is 4-0 in the Georgia Bulldogs last 4 conference games.
The Under is 13-3 in the Georgia Bulldogs last 16 home games.
The Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 conference games.
