Before we kick off a new week of picks and power rankings, it’s important to look back at the weekend’s NFL action and ask ourselves that most important of questions, “What did we learn?”
ALREADY OUT OF IT?
If an NFL team loses its first two games, it has just an 11.3 percent chance of making the playoffs according to whoever keeps those kinds of stats. That means the deck is stacked against the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers.
First off, looking at that list, are we that surprised? Over the last two weeks I’ve picked two of those teams to win exactly once, the Bengals and the Giants. The rest have been easy picks against, with the only question being if they’d let the favored team cover the spread.
Are there any of these teams that can turn it around and be one of those 11.3 percent outliers?
I don’t think so. I picked exactly zero of these teams to make the playoffs in my season previews and feel even better about that today than I did two weeks ago. Five of these teams have a fatal flaw, their head coach. The Colts, Bengals, Chargers, Giants and Bears all have guys that could or should (in the case of Anthony Lynn) get fired or let walk (since Marvin Lewis’ contract is up) as January hits. Frankly, I don’t think Chuck Pagano makes it to the end of the season. Especially since Andrew Luck is out again and no one has any idea when he’ll actually suit up and play.
Todd Bowles has been a dead man walking since the Jets decided to tank the season and they might not win a game.
The Bengals have far too good a roster to be this bad. In two NFL games, they’ve yet to score a touchdown. That’s Jeff Fisher level ineptitude. Lewis has just stayed there too long for his own good and now this team looks ready for a new guy to be in charge.
Ben McAdoo of the Giants is such a shitty coach that he put the blame on a delay of game penalty inside the five on fourth down on Eli Manning. The truth is, considering the sure horrendous playcall McAdoo sent in, the penalty was actually a good thing. It made McAdoo send the field goal unit onto the field, which he should have done in the first place, and put some points on the board. After the kick, New York just trailed by four.
But McAdoo, with his hair gel seeping into his brain, blamed the penalty on “sloppy quarterback play.” Manning has won two Super Bowls. He’s the franchise. McAdoo is a glorified Waffle House manager that’s heading for the unemployment line.
The Browns, will roll with Hue Jackson again next season regardless of what happens this year. With Indianapolis on the schedule Sunday this could be a great week to be a Cleveland football fan. Kyle Shanahan has two rebuilding years in San Francisco before he even has to worry about a pink slip.
Lynn, too, will get at least one more season to waste the twilight years of Philip Rivers’ quarterbacking. He was a stupid hire for the Chargers. A cheap hire and one they probably just made to get them over the hump until they move into their new stadium with the Rams in 2020. The problem is, Rivers doesn’t have that much time left. This could have been a good team with the right guy in charge. Lynn’s not him.
I think Sean Payton is safe, but I’ve got a real feeling that Drew Brees won’t be back next year. The team needs the $26 million it would take to retain Brees to sign free agents and rebuild its roster. Unless New Orleans is completely terrible and ends up with a Top Five pick, my guess is they’ll trade up too for one of the draft’s top quarterbacks, whoever Payton likes best. It’s a good scenario because this team needs a complete overhaul and they can’t do it with Brees taking up so much cap.
Lastly, there’s John Fox, a guy who used to be a top level coach, but seems to be phoning it in like E.T. with an exploding Samsung in Chicago. Once Fox finally makes the call to go with Mitchell Trubisky, his fortunes may change. As it is, my fired coaches power rankings look like this…
1. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
2. Todd Bowles, New York Jets
3. Ben McAdoo, New York Giants
4. John Fox, Chicago Bears
5. Marvin Lewis (again, not fired, but not re-upped), Cincinnati Bengals
6. Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
7. Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins
8. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
9. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
10. Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
CAN THE FALCONS BEAT THE SUPER BOWL HANGOVER?
I was a firm believer all off-season that the Falcons would not be able to psychologically overcome their 28-3 choke job in Super Bowl 51. They’re 23-17 win in Week One over the Chicago Bears didn’t give me a lot of hope, but last Sunday’s 34-23 beat down of the Packers was solid. ]
The truth is, their schedule may be their best friend. If they get by the Detroit Lions this week (and I’m not sure they do), they’ll have the Buffalo Bills at home, then a bye, then the Miami Dolphins with two weeks’ prep before a Week Seven Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots. If they come into that New England game 5-1 or better, there’s no hangover. If they beat the Patriots in Foxborough, their entire season outlook changes.
But, say they come in 4-2 with losses to the Lions and Dolphins and then lose to New England, then that’s it for the Falcons. They would be done and, like I predicted in the preseason, would not make the playoffs. We’ll know before Halloween how it’s going to go down.
Injuries to Vic Beasley Jr. and Courtney Upshaw won’t help. As good as Atlanta’s defense looked against the Packers, Green Bay was playing with two new tackles. They’ll need a significant pass rush to slow down Matthew Stafford Sunday.
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