The UCLA Bruins and Stanford Cardinal both lost in Week 3 of the college football season, making their matchup in Week 4 that much more urgent and critical. Stanford is on a two-game losing streak, raising grave concerns about the Cardinal’s ability to survive in the Pac-12. Against UCLA, how vulnerable is David Shaw’s team, even though it will play on its home campus?
Details
Odds: Cardinal -7.5
Date & Time: Saturday September 23, 10:30 PM ET
Location: Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, CA
Broadcast: ESPN
Reasons To Bet On The UCLA Bruins
The case for picking UCLA mostly resides with Stanford, but UCLA does have something to do with it. UCLA has scored at least 45 points in all three games it has played. Quarterback Josh Rosen has made some mistakes, including a few big interceptions against Memphis in Week 3 which did not help UCLA’s outlook. Nevertheless, Rosen has made a lot of big plays and lit up the scoreboard, distributing the ball to a lot of fleet-footed wide receivers before the opposing pass rush can get to him. UCLA has had problems on its offensive line, but that line improved a lot against Memphis, giving hope that UCLA can beat Stanford’s front seven in a similar way.
Stanford is the bigger reason than Josh Rosen to take the Bruins. As encouraging as UCLA’s offensive performances might be, Stanford is a bad team right now. The Cardinal have one basic leg to stand on when they play offense: springing running back Bryce Love for big plays. When Love gets free for a long run, Stanford can score, but the Cardinal have not created 10-play, 80-yard drives with a mixture of runs and passes. Quarterback Keller Chryst has been completely ineffective, even with Love doing his part by giving Stanford a real run threat. Stanford was unable to overpower San Diego State at the line of scrimmage, which means that UCLA has a very good chance of not being dominated by the Cardinal as well.
If UCLA can play Stanford on even terms in the trenches, the Bruins have the better quarterback and wide receivers. That’s a compelling case to make.
Reasons To Bet On The Stanford Cardinal
The case for Stanford resides with UCLA. The Bruins have allowed at least 44 points in two of their three games. The Memphis defense they shredded is likely much weaker than the Stanford defense UCLA will oppose on Saturday. UCLA committed multiple turnovers and 15-yard penalties which gave Memphis a timely boost when the Tigers needed one. UCLA is not playing with the discipline needed to win this game.
The bigger point to make about UCLA in this specific game is that the Bruins have not figured out Stanford. Last year’s game was close in Los Angeles, but the Bruins were crushed the last time they played on Stanford’s home field. UCLA coach Jim Mora has never beaten Stanford and David Shaw. Stanford’s power style usually overwhelms UCLA’s speed, instead of the other way around.
Outlook
Taking a look at the betting action in this game, the money has been on Stanford. They opened up as a 6.5-point favorite but the line has moved in their favor, all the way up to 7.5. In terms of the total, we have seen steady pressure on the under as the game opened up at 64 but has moved down steadily to reach where it currently sits, which is 58. That’s a huge move.
The Cardinal have not lost to UCLA in nearly a decade. As badly as they have played, they have the right matchup here. They have a history of beating this specific opponent. They are at home. They are desperate and badly need to break a two-game losing streak. UCLA had trouble on the road at Memphis last week and going to Stanford won’t be any easier. We would have liked them more at under a touchdown but take Stanford on the betting line in this spot to cover.
Prediction: Cardinal -7.5
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