The Colorado Buffaloes and the UCLA Bruins both suffered tough losses last week. The tricky part is that the two teams lost to opponents which have been very good in recent years. Many people will write off both the Buffaloes and the Bruins, but they might be better than a lot of the public thinks. What is going to happen in this game between two teams both in search of a rebound? One will successfully turn its season in a different direction, while another will sink further into trouble.
Details
Odds: Bruins -7
Date & Time: Saturday September 30, 10:30 PM ET
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Broadcast: ESPN2
Reasons To Bet On The Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffs played Washington tough and close through 40 minutes on Saturday night. Washington, the defending Pac-12 champion, could not pull away from Colorado through the middle of the third quarter. The Buffaloes’ defense forced two field goal attempts in the red zone and stopped another Washington drive inside the 35. Washington missed two field goals, so although the Huskies moved the ball a lot, they had a very small 17-10 lead with four minutes left in the third quarter. Then Colorado quarterback Steven Montez threw a pick-six to push the deficit to 24-10, and Colorado never threatened after that. The final score was 37-10, but the game was far closer than that. Colorado’s defense played extremely well. Giving up only 30 offensive points (plus seven on the pick-six) to Washington will put the Buffs well ahead of most of the competition in the Pac-12. They will be ready to contain quarterback Josh Rosen and the rest of the UCLA offense. The Bruins have been scoring a lot of points, but Colorado has a legitimately physical defense which stood up to Washington for nearly three full quarters.
As long as Montez does not throw the crippling interception he threw against Washington, Colorado can create a close and low-scoring game against UCLA that it can win in the final minutes. Moreover, given that UCLA has allowed 48 and 58 points in its last two games and 44 in its season opener, Colorado’s offense – which has been average thus far – might have a chance to score well above its average, in which case UCLA’s offense would likely be in more trouble.
Reasons To Bet On The UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have been bothered by Stanford, failing to win against the Cardinal since 2008. Why does that matter, and why does it mean UCLA has a good chance against Colorado? Very simply, Stanford is a specifically bad matchup for UCLA. The Cardinal pose problems the Bruins can’t solve. Colorado is not that same kind of opponent. As poorly as UCLA has played on defense this season, the Bruins contained Colorado’s offense a year ago and have gotten the better of the Buffaloes in recent meetings.
As much as the defense might be struggling, it is easy to see Josh Rosen leading the offense to a 45-point night. He has racked up big-time stats and continuously led his offense into the end zone. Scoring 34 on Stanford on the road is a very good accomplishment. The defense is a problem, but it doesn’t have to be perfect for UCLA to win. It just needs to be tolerable and average. UCLA’s weaknesses might over overstated.
Outlook
The UCLA Bruins opened up at -7 and while the line has bounced around a little bit, it is currently back at -7. The total has seen plenty of action as it opened at 66.5 before moving all the way up to 69.5. Currently, it is back down to 68.5 where it seems to have settled for now.
The passing skill of Rosen is considerable, but Colorado has a tough and physical defense which should make the game hard for Rosen to process and ultimately play. The Buffaloes’ defense deserves more trust than the UCLA Bruins offense at this point. That being the case, take the points with the Buffaloes. They may not win but they should cover.
Prediction: Buffaloes +7
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