It’s a Saturday night non-conference match-up when the Troy Trojans head into Death Valley to face-off with the (22) LSU Tigers for homecoming. The southern-based contest is scheduled to get started on Saturday, September 30th at 7:00 p.m. EST. The game can be seen on the ESPNU Network. Oddsmakers have set the LSU Tigers as three-touchdown favorites and the over/under is now at 49.
Troy has officially rebounded from their opening week loss to the Boise State Broncos on the road. Since then, they have reeled off three straight wins heading into Bayou country. Last week, the Trojans managed to stave off a sputtering Akron Zips club 22-17 at home. In that game, Troy was favored to win by 17 points but found themselves unable to pull away from the Zips.
The LSU Tigers also recovered from a defeat at the hands of conference rival Mississippi State. After being completely held down against the Bulldogs, the Tigers responded with a 35 point performance at home against Syracuse. The problem with that victory was the LSU defense surrendered 26 points and couldn’t put the Orangemen away in Death Valley.
The LSU Tigers won both previous meetings against the Troy Trojans. Including, a 40-31 victory at home in the most recent matchup on November 15, 2008.
Troy Trojans (3-1)
Well, the Troy Trojans three straight wins have not been very pretty, but a win is a win in this league. Besides lowly Alcorn State, their last two victories over New Mexico State and Akron have come by a combined eight points.
Offensively, quarterback Brandon Silvers has thrown the ball around for more than enough yards but isn’t getting the results in the red zone that the Trojans would like to see. Four games in, he has completed just over 100 passes for 1,084 yards but only has two touchdowns. Silvers also has two interceptions to make the touchdown to pick ratio rather uninviting. He cannot afford to turn the ball over if Troy hopes to pull off the upset at LSU this weekend.
The Trojans wheel out two running backs that make up a good duo in their rushing attack. Jordan Chunn leads the team with 61 carries for just under 300 yards and five scores. His backfield mate Jamarius Henderson has contributed by toting the rock 24 times for 198 yards and three touchdowns of his own.
Quarterback Brandon Silvers likes to distribute the football evenly between four different wide receivers. All of them have caught at least 12 passes and all of them have recorded well over 100 yards. Deondre Douglas leads this unit with 19 grabs for 233 yards and a score. Tailback Jordan Chunn also catches balls out of the backfield for Troy. He has reeled in 15 catches for 133 yards so far this season.
Against the Zips, defensive end Zo Bridges recorded a pair of sacks and cornerback Kris Weatherspoon chipped in a pair of interceptions for Troy. As a result, the Trojans held Akron to only 367 total yards of offense.
More importantly, Troy has held their own in the trenches, holding opponents to under 100 yards per game on the ground (14th). That might bode well for them as they will face one of the nation’s top running backs in Derrius Guice.
(22) LSU Tigers (3-1)
Against the Cuse, the Tigers twice led by over 17 points in the third quarter. Instead of putting the Orangemen away, they allowed them to claw their way back into the game on both occasions. Eventually, they put the game away but the dominance we have seen from the Tigers in the past just wasn’t there.
Currently, LSU is 86th in the FBS in passing offense with 206.3 yards per contest. Quarterback Danny Etling has been consistent but not electrifying by any means. Altogether, he has completed 77 passes for 723 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Tigers hoped to be a more balanced club by ramping up their passing attack in 2017. So far, that just hasn’t been the case.
Heisman Trophy hopeful Derrius Guice isn’t having the year that many thought that he would. Even still, he is a threat to go over 200 yards in any game he plays in. Another reason is that he has been splitting his time in the backfield with teammate Darrel Williams. Guice has rumbled for 314 yards on 65 carries with five trips to the promised land. Williams has rushed for another 251 yards on 44 carries with five more scores.
Wide receiver D.J. Chark is clearly the best wideout that LSU fields on Saturdays. As of now, Chark has caught 12 passes for 233 yards with no touchdowns. Teammate Drake Davis is proving to be the big-play guy when the Tigers need to move the football in big chunks. Davis only has three catches but they have gone for 134 yards and two scores.
Although the Tigers defense has not been as dominating as people thought they would be, they still are solid. Overall, the LSU defense holds teams to on 18 points per game (27th) and gives up only 297 yards per contest (23rd). Troy has proven they can move the football between the 20’s but I don’t see them solving their red zone issues against the Tigers this weekend.
Prediction
The first thing that comes to my mind when I think about this game is that it isn’t going to be pretty. Not only has Troy found a way to make games dirty no matter who they play, LSU just doesn’t look all that good. Yes, they bounced back with a win at home after the Bulldog debacle but not very impressively.
Something else that sticks out to me is that both of these schools’ quarterbacks can’t seem to finish off their drives with scoring strikes. That is exactly why this total sits pretty damn low at 49. That being said, I’m not convinced that that couldn’t change this weekend so I suggest staying away from this over/under.
Instead, play the Troy Trojans to cover the +21 points in Death Valley. Here’s why, because consistency is the measure over time and Troy has been consistently mired in close games all season. Now, this contest might not be decided by less than a touchdown but I definitely don’t think the 3-1 Trojans are going to lose by three scores. Their defense is good enough to limit LSU to 30 points or under and their offense should find a way to get 14-17 points. LSU wins 31-17 over the Trojans. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
The Trojans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
The Over is 15-1 in the Trojans last 16 games versus the SEC.
The Tigers are 0-3-1 in their last four home games.
The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
The Under is 7-2-2 in the Tigers last 11 home games.
