The San Diego State Aztecs are feeling very good about themselves after beating Air Force last week. The Northern Illinois Huskies will play another non-conference road game this season, trying to bag another upset. Both teams have made claims to legitimacy, and arguments which suggest they should be the betting choice in this game. Which argument makes more sense and is more likely to be validated on Saturday night in San Diego?
Details
Odds: Aztecs -11
Date & Time: Saturday, September 30, 10:30 PM ET
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Reasons To Bet On The Northern Illinois Huskies
The Huskies went into Nebraska a few weeks ago and shocked the Huskers with a tremendous defensive performance. Nebraska is not as strong as it once was, but it is still not easy to win in front of a crowd of over 85,000 people, and the Huskies held their nerve. They led most of the game, then fell behind in the fourth quarter, and then immediately retook the lead with a strong, composed touchdown drive.
A San Diego crowd is a lot smaller and more relaxed than a Nebraska crowd. Qualcomm Stadium is not particularly daunting in terms of road stadiums to win. Northern Illinois can handle the environment.
The other part of the case for Northern Illinois is that San Diego State could be mentally tired – not physically, just mentally. The Aztecs endured bad weather last week at Air Force, one week after a highly taxing game against Stanford. The bad weather created a delay of roughly 90 minutes. They had to start a game, then stop a game, then restart, which is not an easy thing to do. Players had to create their own energy and fight through difficult conditions against an opponent, Air Force, which played tough. San Diego State fought off multiple deficits to win that game, and while the win was impressive, San Diego State had to push itself very hard.
This could easily be a letdown game for the Aztecs, while Northern Illinois is much more mentally fresh heading into kickoff Saturday night.
Reasons To Bet On The San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs are likely to be far more powerful at the line of scrimmage than Northern Illinois, which will help them to overcome any mental fatigue they might feel. San Diego State has running back Rashaad Penny, who has been outstanding through the first four weeks of the season and represents an offensive weapon Northern Illinois can’t match. San Diego State’s offense is not explosive, but it is consistent. The Aztecs have scored whenever they have absolutely had to this season. They score in the fourth quarters of games and wear down their opponents. Northern Illinois is not likely to keep up with the Aztecs for 60 full minutes – 30 perhaps, but not all 60.
San Diego State also should win comfortably because it doesn’t make big mistakes. Northern Illinois needed two pick-sixes (14 points from its defense) in the road win at Nebraska. The win was a great achievement for NIU, but the Huskies needed a lot of help. As long as San Diego State doesn’t provide that help, the Aztecs will be in very good shape.
Outlook
San Diego State is currently sitting as an 11-point favorite but we’ve seen a little bit of movement on the betting line. They opened at -12 and have climbed as high as -12.5 several times before bouncing back to -12 and landing at -11 now. Clearly, there are some divided opinions on this game among bettors. We’ve similarly seen some movement on the over-under as the total has been as low as 44.5 and as high as 49. Currently, it’s sitting at 48.5, so the bettors like this game to go over.
The reality that Northern Illinois won at Nebraska is minimized by all the gifts the Huskers gave to the Huskies. San Diego State will not hand out those gifts and will therefore win easily at home. Although it’s a big line here, lay the double digits with the Aztecs. They’ve been consistently good to start the season.
Prediction: Aztecs -11
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