The Colorado Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season by any standards. It will be hard for Colorado to be as bad as it was a year ago. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine the Avalanche improving substantially after failing to make any significant upgrades in the offseason. Colorado should record more than 22 wins but it’s unreasonable to expect this group to take a major step forward in 2017-18.
How They Finished Last Season
The Avalanche were considered a team capable of contending for a playoff spot in their first year under head coach Jared Bednar. However, Colorado looked terrible out of the gate and never really recovered. The Avalanche finished the year with just 48 points, which was the fewest of any NHL team in the salary cap era. It was a dramatic disappointment for a team that appeared to be headed in the right direction with Patrick Roy as head coach just two years earlier.
What Changed In The Offseason
Colorado might have actually got worse on paper after losing Mikhail Grigorenko, Francois Beauchemin and goalie Calvin Pickard. General manager Joe Sakic took a flyer on Nail Yakuov and Jonathan Bernier, but was otherwise very quiet in the offseason. The biggest surprise is the return of Matt Duchene, who remains with the team for now despite persistent trade rumors that he will be moved at some point either before or during the season. The Avalanche likely won’t move Duchene without receiving a significant package of assets in return. That said, Sakic hasn’t been able to find a suitor for Duchene to this point so there is no guarantee that the issue drags over in to the regular season.
Most Valuable Fantasy Hockey Asset
Nathan Mackinnon led the Avalanche with 56 points last season. That is a low total for the leader of an NHL team but he is still just 22-years-old and he didn’t have much help a year ago. Mackinnon finished the season on a high note and should have more help with the arrival of top prospect Mikko Rantenen. Mackinnon hasn’t eclipsed the 60-point mark since his rookie season but he is still the best option on an Avalanche team that is significantly short on talent.
Rising Star
The outlook for the Avs is bleak as they finished with the 30th-most points in the NHL last season and don’t appear to have any clear-cut stars on the rise. There are some decent prospects but we aren’t looking at any can’t-miss type of players.
Two under-the-radar guys to keep an eye on are defensemen Chris Bigras and Anton Lindholm. Bigras we drafted in the second round of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft and has been developing nicely. Lindholm was a fifth-round in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. Both could end up contributing to the blue line and Bigras, who has adequate size, even contributed last year in 31 games.
On offense, keep an eye on Tyson Jost, who was the 10th overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. He had 35 points in 33 games for North Dakota last year, which shows you what type of prowess he has. If the Avs in fact trade away Matt Duchene at some point this season, someone like Jost could be called upon to step up and into the lineup.
Regular Season Win Total Outlook
Colorado is in a tough position after last year’s struggles. The Avalanche failed to significantly upgrade their roster in the offseason so they will once again rely on the same core they had in place for last year’s historically bad season. It will be interesting to see whether they are able to shake things up with Duchene still on their roster just one week before the regular season begins. There are more question marks than answers in Colorado heading in to the season. There is a good chance that things get worse before they get better. The Avalanche will win more than 22 games. They are far from a lock to reach the 30-win mark in 2017-18.
Pick: Under 29.5 Wins
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