It may not be the most anticipated game of the week, but it sure is nice to have some early college football action to wet the palate. The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Georgia Southern Eagles are two Sun Belt Conference teams that are set to do just that when they meet in Paulson, Georgia on Wednesday.
The contest is scheduled to begin on Wednesday, October 4th at 8:00 p.m. EST. The first Division I game of the week can be seen on ESPN2 for your viewing entertainment. Heading into this match-up, the Red Wolves are currently a -7 point favorite and the game’s total is at 55.
Both of these schools have struggled in non-conference play to start off their seasons. The Arkansas State Red Wolves went 1-2 in their first three contests, with their only victory coming against the FCS’s Arkansas Pine-Bluff. However, they did play the Nebraska Cornhuskers tough in their opener, losing 43-36 on the road.
The Georgia Southern Eagles got obliterated by Power Five opponents Auburn (41-7) and Indiana (52-17) in their last game two weeks ago. Unfortunately, they also lost to FCS New Hampshire the week prior to that 22-12. Now, the Eagles are 0-3 heading into this must-win conference game at home on Wednesday. That is not a good sign heading into conference play.
Last year, these two teams met up in Arkansas and the Red Wolves pulled out a last-second miracle. Quarterback Justice Hansen threw the gaming winning touchdown to wideout Omar Bayless with only nine seconds left. As a result, Arkansas State went on to beat Georgia Southern 27-26.
Arkansas State (1-2)
In their last loss to SMU, the offense wasn’t the problem for the Arkansas State Red Wolves. They accumulated 427 total yards with 284 of those coming via the passing attack. In fact, the Red Wolves come into this contest ranked ninth in the country, passing the pigskin for just of 350 yards per game.
Quarterback Justice Hansen has led the way for the Red Wolves’ air assault. Against the Mustangs, Hansen completed 16 of his 26 passes for 234 yards with two scores and no picks. Overall, he has tallied 985 yards through the air with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. If Hansen can keep up his high-level of play, Arkansas State should be able to bounce back from their shaky start like they did in 2016.
Overall, he has tallied 985 yards through the air with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. If Hansen can keep up his high-level of play, Arkansas State should be able to bounce back from their shaky start like they did in 2016. The kid under-center did suffer a back injury against SMU and is listed as questionable for this contest.
The running game just hasn’t been able to find a rhythm so far this year. Unlike the impressive numbers that the passing game has procured, the rushing attack ranks 103rd in the nation. Altogether, the Red Wolves have only run the football for just over 350 yards in 2017. Tailback Warren Wand is by far the Red Wolves best option out of the backfield. Wand has toted the rock 34 times for just over 200 yards with two trips to the promised land.
Arkansas State does boast one of the most balanced receiving corps in the country. Five wideouts have between 13 and 15 catches and two others have reeled in at least seven more. Christian Booker leads the squad with 190 yards and on 14 catches with two touchdowns. Teammate Blake Mack has 15 grabs for 164 yards and a team-high three scores.
The biggest reason that the Arkansas State Red Wolves have struggled to compete in two of their due to their defense. To their dismay, they gave up nearly 600 yards of offense to SMU last weekend and average almost 441 per game.
The Red Wolves are especially bad against the run, giving way to 198 per game which is 104th in the nation. This poses a big problem as the Eagles are a run first team, putting up over 180 yards on the ground.
Georgia Southen Eagles (0-3)
In their last outing, the Eagles vaunted triple-option rushing attack was solid against Indiana. Altogether, they racked up 283 yards rushing on 47 carries. Turnovers were the culprit in the loss, as Georgia Southern recorded five fumbles. They also had 13 penalties for over 100 yards.
Quarterback Shai Wertz spearheads the Eagles offensive attack. The freshman signal-caller has carried the ball 67 times for almost 200 yards and has no touchdowns. The 2.2 yards per carry has to be a concern for Georgia Southern going forward. Wertz has also tossed the ball downfield 44 times. He has completed 21 of those throws for 230 yards with two touchdowns and two picks.
When Shai Wertz isn’t tucking the ball and running with it, he looks to two tailbacks to help with the workload. L.A. Ramsby and Wesley Fields have combined for 80 carries for almost 300 yards and a trip to pay-dirt. Both will have an opportunity to improve on those figures when facing the porous run defense of the Red Wolves.
Passing the ball to move the chains is not something the Eagles like to do very often. When they get themselves into third and long or when play-action becomes an option, they like to toss it to D’Ondre Glenn. The receiver has brought in three passes for just under 100 yards and a touchdown. Because of the play-action scenarios, he averages over 32 yards per catch.
Surprisingly, Georgia Southern’s defense continues to struggle against the run. One might think that would be a strength considering they see it all the time in practice. Apparently, that isn’t the case as they surrender nearly 260 yards per game (127th). Fortunately, their secondary has done better giving up only 166 yards through the air (21st). This strength versus weakness bodes well for them because Arkansas State is a pass-first outfit.
Prediction
Well, there are a few things you might want to consider when looking into these two Sun Belt teams’ match-up on Wednesday. First, the Eagles secondary has done well for themselves against their opposition. I’d like to also point out that Indiana’s passing attack is no cupcake either. This should give Georgia Southern some help getting off the field against Arkansas State. Plus, Justice Hansen is questionable for this one and even if he does play he should be hampered a bit by his ailing back.
Secondly, the Red Wolves can’t seem to stop anybody from running the football down their throats. That plays right into the Eagles wheel-house because all they do is run, run, run. To make matters worse, Arkansas State might not be able to capitalize on the Eagles’ weak defensive front because of their lack of a running game.
Las Vegas has this line set at a touchdown for the Red Wolves. Yes, the Eagles are 0-3 but they are at home for this and lost in the final few seconds a season ago. I suggest buying up the seven to 7.5 and put your money down on the home dog for this one. Also, the under 55 seems like a good play to me. Nobody is really sure if Justice Hansen will be available for this Sun Belt showdown and the Eagles might chew up a lot of clock running against the Red Wolves defense.
Trends
The Red Wolves are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
The Under is 6-1 in the Red Wolves last seven road games.
The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Under is 6-1 in the Eagles last seven home games.
