The Colorado Buffaloes and the Arizona Wildcats desperately need a win this weekend. Both teams have failed to win a game in Pac-12 Conference play. Both teams are on the verge of eliminating themselves from contention for the Pac-12 South Division title. Both teams have received highly substandard play from their offenses and their quarterbacks. Both teams stand on the same ground in a number of different ways.
Details
Odds: Buffaloes -6.5
Date & Time: Saturday October 7, 8:00 PM ET
Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Broadcast: Pac-12 Network
Reasons To Bet On The Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats have a decent defense which has kept the team in games. The Wildcats have not been immensely successful this season, but the defense is allowing an average of under 23 points per game. That average, if sustained, should be able to win several Pac-12 games, since the conference is known for high-scoring games and potent offenses. Arizona’s defense has limited big plays and has not yet experienced a true breakdown this season. If the Wildcats can maintain their steady pace and trajectory on defense, they can finally get one good offensive performance and cash it into a victory.
The other big reason to think Arizona can win this game is that Colorado’s offense is struggling. The Buffaloes have averaged just 15 points in two conference games, both losses. The Buffaloes scored only three second-half points against Washington in Week 4 of the season, and stumbled in the red zone in a 24-20 loss to a UCLA team which had allowed 48 and 58 points in its previous two games. Colorado is not finding answers on offense. Veteran quarterback Steven Montez was supposed to give the Buffaloes stability and leadership this season, but it hasn’t happened. He threw a critical interception against Washington which was returned for a touchdown. He couldn’t find ways to expose UCLA’s flimsy defense, and on the few times he found openings, his receivers dropped passes to short-circuit drives. Colorado isn’t getting strong production from anyone on its offense. It’s hard to have too much confidence in the Buffaloes right now.
Reasons To Bet On The Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffaloes might not be playing well, but it’s fair to say that Arizona is playing worse. The Wildcats look very incoherent on offense even though their defense has been solid. Quarterback Brandon Dawkins is very fast, and he can run well, but he is a terrible passer who cannot manage to read defenses. He had a receiver wide open for a touchdown in Arizona’s most recent game against Utah on September 22. The receiver had no one who was 15 yards near him, and he was on the same side of the field as Dawkins, but the quarterback could not manage to throw the ball to him. The play was stopped short of a first down and Arizona’s drive fizzled. If Montez is having a hard year as Colorado’s quarterback, Dawkins is noticeably inferior in a two-man comparison. The Arizona offense is more broken because its quarterback is less developed.
Outlook
We’ve seen plenty of movement on this betting line, although the line hasn’t moved a lot. It opened at -6.5 for Colorado and it has bounced around between -6.5 and -7. Different bettors are clearly split on whether to lay -6.5 with Colorado or take a touchdown with Arizona. The total opened at 58 and currently sits at 59.
The inability of Dawkins to play fundamentally sound football and recognize what happens with opposing defenses is something which simply should not happen. Arizona is a much more flawed team on offense, and that’s why Colorado is the better bet here. You have to remember that Arizona has struggled this year and has played three home games. Their load road game was at UTEP. This is a step up in competition. While the Buffs have lost back-to-back games, both were tough spots. They lost at home to a good Washington team and the lost by four on the road at UCLA. They should get back on track in this spot and cover the number.
Prediction: Buffaloes -6.5
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