The 7th ranked TCU Horned Frogs make their way up to the Little Apple to get down with the Kansas State Wildcats in a BIG-12 match-up this weekend. The game is ready to go off on Saturday, October 14th at High Noon and can be seen on the Fox Sports 1 channel. Oddsmakers have set this contest’s total at 53.5 and the Horned Frogs as -6 point favorites.
Last week, the TCU Horned Frogs notched a huge 31-24 home triumph over a ranked West Virginia Mountaineers team. Although they did not cover the 12.5 point spread, they did find enough offense to hold off a feisty West Virginia club. It was TCU’s worst offense output on the season but their defense created two turnovers that helped seal the victory.
The Kansas State Wildcats weren’t so lucky. They went on the road to play the Texas Longhorns and were handed a 40-34 double overtime loss. Now, the Wildcats have to regroup and defend their home turf against the unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs.
In 2016, these two schools met in Fort Worth and the Kansas State Wildcats came away with an impressive 30-6 win over the Horned Frogs. As a result, the Wildcats hold a slight three games to two lead over TCU since the realignment of the BIG-12 conference.
(7) TCU Horned Frogs (5-0)
The seventh-ranked Horned Frogs used a strong defensive effort and scored a late touchdown to beat the 23rd- ranked Mountaineers last week. Now, they sit at 5-0 on the year and look to return home undefeated to face the floundering Jayhawks.
Quarterback Kenny Hill didn’t have his best game against West Virginia. He connected on 15 of 28 passes for 188 yards with one touchdown and no picks. The senior under-center is having a solid season, piling up 1,153 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Obviously, Hill will need to play much better if he hopes to come away from Manhatten with a win.
Currently, TCU is ranked 26th in the country, rushing for 216 yards a game. Running back Darius Anderson is a big reason why. The shifty runner has toted the rock 77 times for 465 yards and six trips to pay-dirt. Teammates Kyle Hicks and Sewo Olonilua have pitched in with almost 350 more yards and five scores. Kansas State has only allowed 129 yards a game on the ground this season so something has got to give.
Kenny Hill uses five different wideouts to do his dirty work on Saturdays. Everyone one of those pass catchers has at least one touchdown reception and all six have reached the century mark in receiving yards. As a unit, they have reeled in 66 passes for just under 800 yards and seven scores. On paper, it doesn’t seem like a whole lot of production. Nevertheless, TCU sits 47th in the country in passing yardage, reaching 259 per contest.
The Horned Frogs defense was up against a potent Mountaineers offense and they still held them to only 24 points. They did allow 508 total yards but once again were opportunistic and forced two turnovers. TCU has now defeated two straight ranked teams by beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys and now West Virginia. This defense is becoming battle-tested, ranking 15th in the country against the run and 31st in points allowed per game (19).
Kansas State Wildcats (3-2)
The Kansas State Wildcats fought their hearts out in their disappointing 40-34 double-overtime loss to Texas last weekend. Apparently, the whole team is once again taking on the never say die personality of their coach Bill Snyder. Unfortunately, the only thing that propels teams into the post-season in this day in age is victories and Kansas State needs more of them.
Jesse Ertz is about as tough as a quarterback as there is in the country. He is consistently asked to carry the Wildcat’s offense and most of the time does a great job at it. Last week was no different, as Ertz converted on 12 of his 18 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns against one interception. The senior quarterback is having a strong season, recording 930 passing yards with seven scores and three picks. He also is averaging 9.3 yards a pass and leads Kansas State with 336 rushing yards and another three scores.
The Wildcats’ leading receiver Dalton Schoen also came up big against the Texas Longhorns. In that contest, Schoen reeled in five passes for 128 yards and two trips to the end zone. Now, the sophomore receiver leads his team with 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns. On the other side, wideout Isiah Zuber leads the Wildcats with 20 receptions. He also has accumulated 227 yards and two scores. Balance is something that Kansas State’s offense has been lacking over the past five years. These two receivers are becoming a feasible solution to that problem for coach Snyder.
On the other side, wideout Isiah Zuber leads the Wildcats with 20 receptions. He also has accumulated 227 yards and two scores. Balance is something that Kansas State’s offense has been lacking over the past five years. These two receivers are becoming a feasible solution to that problem for coach Snyder.
It’s hard to say that the Wildcats defense let them down last week but I believe that was the case. They gave up 546 yards in a double over so that stat may be a little skewed. In addition to the 546 yards, they also gave up 380 through the air and didn’t record one sack. Still, Kansas State’s numbers on the season are pretty good. The Wildcat defense ranks 33rd in the country, surrendering only 20 points a game.
Prediction
Las Vegas set this line at 4.5 in favor of the TCU Horned Frogs when it first came out on Monday. Now, the public has pushed that up to six because of all the money pouring in on the Horned Frogs. Traditionally, the Wildcats are a hard out at home and I think that is why oddsmakers gave the 4.5 spread for this match-up. Also, TCU certainly didn’t turn any heads with their seven-point victory at home over West Virginia.
One thing that intrigues me about this match-up is that both defenses play pretty good against the run. Usually, when that is the case, we find that the contest stays tight and is decided by a touchdown or less. The Wildcats are a scrappy team and at home for this one so I expect that to be the case this Saturday. If Vegas is going to give me six points with Kansas State and Jesse Ertz at home, I’ll take it. Plus, the Kansas State defense held this offense to only six points on the road in Fort Worth last season.
As for the total 53, well I think that this could go either way. If you put my feet to the fire on this one I’d say to play the over because I also believe close games tend to drive teams to score fluently in all four quarters. Nevertheless, I’m suggesting to stay away from this total as it could go either way in this conference showdown. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Horned Frogs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
The Under is 6-2 in the Horned Frogs last 8 road games.
The Wildcats are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.
The Wildcats are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in October.
The Over is 5-1 in the Wildcats last 6 home games.
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