The Houston Cougars will square-off against the high-powered Memphis Tigers in an AAC battle at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas on Thursday night. The game is slated to begin on Thursday, October 19th at 8:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN. Odds gurus have set the Houston Cougars as a slight field goal favorite and the contest’s over/under at 61.5.
The Memphis Tigers are coming into this game with a solid 5-1 record. Their only loss was to the Central Knights who have been lights-out all season long. Last week, Memphis matched-up with another good football team, the Navy Midshipmen. Even though their powerful offense was held to under 400 total yards, the Tigers still found a way to beat the Middies by a field goal, 30-27.
The Houston Cougars are heading into this AAC showdown on the heels of a disappointing 45-17 loss on the road to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes. In the loss, the Cougars offense could only manage to put up 17 points on one of the country’s worst defenses. In fact, the Cougars’ defense surrendered almost 300 yards rushing and their offense turned the football over three times.
Now, they will meet up with the Tigers who outscored them 48-44 in a shoot-out in Memphis a year ago. The loss ended a six-game winning streak that the Cougars had over the Tigers, dating back to 2006.
Memphis Tigers (5-1)
Even though their offense sputtered a bit, the Memphis Tigers found a way to win its last game against Navy. The home win made it two in a row for the Tigers after they were embarrassed on the road to the Central Florida Knights. Believe it or not, it was the Memphis defense that forced five turnovers that kept a potent Midshipmen offense at bay.
In the victory, quarterback Riley Ferguson was proficient. The talented signal-caller hit 24 of his 40 passes for almost 300 yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, he did not turn the ball over and put his defense on a short field. It may not have been the seven touchdown performance he had the week earlier but it was just what the Tigers needed. The baller has been awesome in 2017, throwing for 1,814 yards (16th) with 19 touchdowns (2nd) and only five interceptions.
The running game is done completely by a committee in Memphis. Three different backs pitch in to help balance out the Tigers’ strong passing attack. together, the trio has rushed the ball just under 150 times for just under 1000 yards and eight touchdowns. Darrell Henderson leads the way with 67 carries for 542 yards and three scores. His 8.1 rushing average is tops on the club.
When you’re talking about pass catchers for Memphis, one name stands well out above the rest. Outstanding wide receiver Anthony Miller has caught a team-high 45 catches for 606 yards and nine scores. He is one of the best wideouts in college football this year.
The Tigers’ defense was opportunistic in the win over Navy, allowing only 334 total yards and made two interceptions. The Memphis defense is still a work in progress, ranking at the bottom in every major category. Most of the time, they will need to score big points to overcome their suspect defense. The Tigers have won two straight and are now 2-1 in AAC action.
Houston Cougars (4-2)
The Houston Cougars had quite the set-back in their loss to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The week before, they surprised some folks and squashed the up and coming SMU Mustangs 35-22. Apparently, the momentum didn’t carry over and they laid an egg in Tulsa.
Quarterback Kyle Potsma certainly didn’t help matters in the loss last week. Potsma completed 25 balls for 258 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. The signal-caller has made his share of mistakes, throwing for 805 yards with four scores and five interceptions.
Running back Duke Catalon had himself quite the day against the SMU Mustangs. In that game, he rushed for 177 yards and two scores. Conversely, he was held to 72 yards on 24 attempts but did find the end zone once. Overall, he has recorded 431 yards with four touchdowns. Dillon Birden has also pitched in with 227 yards and three more touchdowns.
Three wide receivers share the load for the Houston Cougars. The trio has produced just under 100 catches for over 1,000 yards and five trips to the end zone. Steve Dunbar leads the unit with 462 yards and 40 catches. Linell Bonner is tops with three touchdown receptions.
The Houston defense had their fair share of trouble with Tulsa last week, giving up 416 total yards. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane was able to go 9 for 17 on third their third down conversions. Even with the down performance, their defense has been their strength this year. Even still, they are a below average in three of college football’s four major categories. On a positive note, they do sit 39th in the country allowing only 21 points a contest.
Prediction
I’ll have to admit that when I saw the Houston Cougars as a three-point favorite I couldn’t understand why. Houston is less balanced on offense and there is little doubt who will be the best quarterback on the field. The Cougars do seem to play elevated football at home, losing a close game to Texas Tech 24-27. They also contained a fast-paced Mustang offense to only 22 points. Because of that, I’m suggesting to buy the line up to 3.5 and play the hotter team with the better player under-center.
Las Vegas also has this contest’s total at 61.5. Last year, both of these schools put up a combined 92 points. Yes, the Cougars offense was a different animal then but Memphis has been unable to stop anybody all season long. With the Cougars offense looking for a bounce-back performance and being at home, I like them to score in the 30’s here.
Riley Ferguson and company should find ways to move the chains as they are becoming more balanced as the year goes on. Plus, number four to number three is almost always good for a 14 point boost no matter where the Tigers play. I like the over 61.5 in this game but do realize that Houston has not played to an over all season long. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
The Over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8 games overall.
The Cougars are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The Cougars are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
The Under is 19-7 in the Cougars last 26 games overall.
The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
