The 11th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys ride into Texas Memorial Stadium to rustle-up some action with the Texas Longhorns in some BIG-12 football action. The rivalry is set to get started On Saturday, October 21st at 12:00 p.m. EST. The conference engagement can be seen on ABC for your early college football fix. As of this article, the Cowboys are listed as a -7 point favorite and the game’s total now sits at 65.5 points.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys got their offense back on track last week when they disposed of the Baylor Bears 59-16. In that game, quarterback Mason Rudolph lit up the Bears with over 450 yards passing. Furthermore, the Cowboys went off for just under 750 yards of total offense. As a result, Oklahoma State put up 59 points for the third time this season.
The Texas Longhorns found themselves in a heck of a football game in the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners. Unfortunately, they were outlasted by their hated enemies to the tune of 29-24. Once again, the Longhorns showed how they’ve improved by sticking with the Sooners for all four quarters. Now, they hope to take their program back to the elite level by beating the Cowboys this weekend.
(11) Oklahoma State (5-1)
The Cowboys have responded well after their first defeat of the year against TCU three weeks ago. They picked themselves up by their bootstraps and put together back to back victories. With the Sooners suffering a conference loss to Iowa State, they are still in the picture for the BIG-12 title.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph has been one of the best players under-center in Division I football. He has been consistent from week to week with only one weak game against the Horned Frogs on his resume’. It was more of the same from Rudolph last week when he tossed the ball for over 450 yards. He also found receivers in the end zone on four different occasions and didn’t toss a pick. Overall, he has completed 66 percent of his throws for 2,368 yards with 19 (T2nd) touchdowns and only four interceptions.
Running back Justice Hill has turned on the jets in his last three games. He has eclipsed the century mark in all three and provided balance to the Cowboys’ offense. Last week, Hill touched the ball 14 times out of the backfield. He also dashed for 117 yards and a trip to the promised land. Altogether, the feisty tailback has 633 yards and six combined touchdowns.
Pass-catchers James Washington, Marcell Ateman, and Jalen McCleskey are the best trio of wideouts in college football. Combined, they have over 1,800 yards receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Washington is a beast, catching a team-high 34 passes for 882 yards and six touchdowns. Ateman is close, with another 29 grabs for well over 550 yards and four more scores.
Basically, the Oklahoma State Cowboy’s defense has been hit or miss all season long. Against strong teams, they seem to struggle and force their offense to outscore their opponents. In all, the Cowboys are ranked 65th against the pass and 64th against the run. They also have surrendered 24 points a game.
Texas Longhorns (3-3)
I’ll tell you one thing, the Longhorns sure wish they had their opening day defeat against Maryland back. After last week’s loss, they are now .500 and have a tough match-up against one of the nation’s best offenses at hand. Although they have as many wins as losses, their defeats have been to some tough clubs. They lost to USC at the Coliseum in overtime and to the Sooners last Saturday.
Against Oklahoma, freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger got the starting nod and played amazingly well. The scrappy signal-caller tossed the ball 39 times and completed 19 of his throws. He tallied 278 yards through the air and had a touchdown with no picks to his credit. The gritty youngster also scrambled for a team-high 122 yards and another touchdown. Now, Ehlinger has a total of 227 rushing yards, 1,178 passing yards, and seven touchdowns with three interceptions.
With the exception of Sam Ehlinger, the running game was non-existent against the Sooners a week ago. Leading rusher Chris Warren III only carried the ball four times for six yards. In 2017, Warren III has toted the rock 55 times for 274 yards and five scores. He has to step it up if Texas’ offense hopes to keep up with the high-flying Cowboys.
Wideout Collin Johnson and Reggie Hemphill-Mapps are the Longhorn’s best receivers. Their numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping but they have been able to move the chains when necessary. Johnson leads the squad with 511 yards and Hemphill-Mapps is tops with 29 catches. Together, they have only scored one touchdown.
Defensively, the Longhorns have improved by leaps and bounds in 2017. Especially, the front seven’s ability to stop the run. This year, they rank 23rd in the country, allowing only 116 yards a game. To their dismay, the secondary continues to digress. Coming into this game against one of the nation’s top passers, they currently are giving up 264 yards through the air (109th). All totaled, they have managed to hold school’s offenses to only 24 points.
Prediction
Las Vegas certainly feels like the Cowboys air attack will expose the Longhorn’s weak secondary. Being a seven-point road favorite is a testament to that. Numbers generally don’t lie so I’ll have to say that I agree with that prognosis. Mason Rudolph just has too many weapons at his disposal to not get his yards and points through four quarters of football.
The wildcard in this showdown is Sam Ehlinger. If Sam can move the ball through the air and with his feet, Texas will find themselves scoring their fair share of points. That brings me to my point. Realistically, with almost 950 yards of offense last week, the Sooners and the Longhorns should have easily eclipsed the 60 point mark. Now, Oklahoma State brings a similar offense into town and should find even more success. With a little above average Cowboy defense, I think Texas will also find ways to rack up some yards and points.
With that being the case, I’m suggesting to skip the spread in this BIG-12 affair and go with the over 65.5. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if the Longhorns cover the seven and you can always buy it to 7.5 for some reassurance. Either way, the total should come in as both clubs move the football up and down the field for 60 minutes of football. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Over is 13-5 in the Cowboys last 18 conference games.
The Longhorns are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Longhorns are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.
The Under is 7-2 in the Longhorns last 9 home games.
Road team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
