Brad Keselowski made it to the Round of 8 as he survived the wild-card wreck-fest that was Talladega. Now, there is a lot of pressure on some big-name drivers heading to Kansas for its second race of the season; the first was won by Martin Truex Jr. Let’s take a closer look at what to expect at the Hollywood Casino 400 this week.
Details
Event: Hollywood Casino 400
Category: NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series
Date: Sunday, October 22nd, 3:00 PM PM ET
Location: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, Kansas
After a slew of multi-car wrecks, Keselowski won his third race of the season, beating out Ryan Newman, Trevor Bayne, Joey Logano (who led a race-high 59 laps) and Aric Almirola. A number of playoff contenders were caught up in wrecks throughout the race, which makes this weekend at Kansas that much more uncomfortable. Truex, who was one of those drivers but he is already through to the next round, won the spring Kansas race by leading 104 laps. He was followed by Keselowski, Kevin Harvick (who won last year’s fall race), Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch.
Past Five Winners
2016: Kevin Harvick
2015: Joey Logano
2014: Joey Logano
2013: Kevin Harvick
2012: Matt Kenseth
The Field
Kevin Harvick is going to be a popular bet this week as he has the second-best average finish at this track. In his last five starts here, he has finished 4.8 and won the race in 2016. He has four top fives and four top 10’s overall.
Kyle Busch is second in line according to the odds. He oculd get knocked out after this weekend but in his last four races at Kansas, he has a win and four top fives. He should get back on track.
Jimmie Johnson is obviously strong and mile and a half tracks, as is Martin Truex Jr. The two of them have won about half of the races at this length over the last three years. Both are solid bets this week.
What To Know About The Track
Kansas Speedway opened in 2001 and this race has always been on the docket; the spring race came on in 2011. It is a 1.5-mile track that is banked 17-20 degrees in the corners, 9-11 degrees down the frontstretch and nine degrees down the backstretch, so it’s your typical 1.5-mile track, but you can make passes here. Three of the last five winners overall at Kansas have started 11th or worse.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Kyle Larson over Kyle Busch
Larson is in good shape in the standings as he sits third, so he can still get in on points after finishing 13th at Talladega. However, Busch is on the outside looking in at ninth place after finishing 27th, and even though he has a finishing average of 17.7 and a win in the spring of 2016 here, he might push it too hard and make a crucial mistake; he has been known to do it in the past. Larson has a finishing average of 18.4 in seven starts here, but he finished sixth here in the spring. Even though Busch (who is -140 in this matchup with Larson at +110) has finished in the top five three straight times at Kansas, this just seems like a good time for him to explode and mess it up.
Top-Five Pick: Jimmie Johnson
Johnson has an average finish of 9.6 in 22 starts at Kansas, and two of his three wins here have come in the fall race in 2008 and 2011. He finished 24th at Talladega as he was caught up in a wreck, but he sits in eighth spot in the standings and he has the mentality to be strong and hold his position enough to at least stay there and advance. Johnson hasn’t been bad this year, he just hasn’t found a high gear, but if you let him hang around enough, the defending (and seven-time) champion will make you pay at some point.
Odds To Win 2017 Hollywood Casino 400
Martin Truex Jr +250
Kyle Busch +400
Kyle Larson +800
Kevin Harvick +500
Brad Keselowski +1500
Jimmie Johnson +1500
Denny Hamlin +1200
Matt Kenseth +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Joey Logano +4000
Erik Jones +3000
Ryan Blaney +2500
Kurt Busch +5000
Jamie McMurray +5000
Clint Bowyer +4000
Daniel Suarez +5000
Austin Dillon +10000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +10000
Ryan Newman +10000
Kasey Kahne +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +12500
Field +3000
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