The Denver Nuggets head East for a four-game road trip before returning home to play next 6 games in front of their own fans. First stop: Charlotte, where the Hornets are experiencing similar fluctuations in performance. Wednesday night meeting in Spectrum Center could be a preview of two playoff teams. Or none. Remember – every game counts.
Nuggets at Hornets
Spread: PK (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 212 points (-110)
Bumpy ride for the Nuggets so far
Tough loss on Monday night to the Denver Nuggets. They haven’t been able to play well yet, so perhaps catching a break wasn’t earned. Still, they came close but failed to convert. The Wizards won 104-109 after trading baskets the entire second half. It was an interesting game to watch though, as the Nuggets pressured their opponents in hopes that the thin air will ultimately cause Wizards drop, but the guests responded.
There was little sign of the offense that led the league in offensive rating in the first few months of 2017. After going scoreless in the win over Kings, the focal point of the Nuggets offense, center Nikola Jokic bounced back with a good outing – 29 points with perfect shooting from the perimeter and the free throw line, plus 9 boards and 5 assists. He did have 7 turnovers in the game, setting the tone of a really sloppy night for the Nuggets. The season-high 23 turnovers were an important factor in the loss. It’s also a perfect stat to show the lack of that last season’s game flow. It has much to do with Malone starting what are essentially two shooting guards in Murray and Harris. I’m not a big fan of Mudiay either, so I don’t like that the Nuggets waived Jameer Nelson. Perhaps they could make a run at Bledsoe. Millsap and Barton were once again very solid, but Wilson Chandler is still playing in preseason form. The entire machinery of this teams feels like they are yet to grease all the wheels and get rolling.
You’ve probably heard all about it already, but just in case you haven’t – Nuggets center Nikola Jokic made contact with coach Brooks during the last minute of the game, and was hit by a technical. It was really a minor contact and was blown out of proportion, so there should be no further penalty for the big guy. However, it might not be completely accidental, as his reaction to the hit was not natural, so it may speak of Jokic’s frustration. Things aren’t going smoothly for the Nuggets yet, but that was to be expected.
Place: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Date/Time: Wednesday, October 25th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSEC, Altitude
Charlotte lose to the Bucks
The Hornets opened the game in Milwaukee very well and found themselves up by 10 before the first quarter was done. Still, as the game progressed, it was obvious that they don’t have enough talent to match the Bucks. They struggled to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo on one end and couldn’t hit shots on the other. The effort was there, but the Hornets need their injured starters back as soon as possible.
The Hornets did a solid job against the long, mobile Bucks defense. They got the ball to the right places, but they couldn’t convert. Three players who had attempted most field goals, Walker, Williams, and Lamb, shot poorly overall and terribly from the outside. As a team, Charlotte managed to hit 42.3 percent of their shots and just 26.9 percent of threes. They also got a close look at how Howard’s free throw shooting can disrupt the rhythm, as the newly acquired center missed all of his 9 free throws in the game. He did have 22 rebounds, 7 of which on the offensive end, so he tried to be aggressive and dominant, but the rims shrunk. Backup bigs Kaminsky and Johnny O’Bryant were the only hot-handed players. They combined for 32 points, so there’s a promise of what could be a dangerous second unit (especially if Malik Monk gets it going), as soon as Batum and MKG return to their roles.
Charlotte stays home for the next two games, so this will give them time to work with Kidd-Gilchrist and accelerate his return. He probably won’t but could play on Wednesday night – after all, many of the younger Hornets are seemingly learning how to play on the fly.
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets Game Trends & Prediction
After a tough home loss to Washington, the Denver Nuggets have slipped to 1-2 record. The ATS record mirrors win/loss record so far, and none of the deciders was even close. There is one trend developing on Nuggets games – all three games went well below the expected lines. Going back to the end of the previous season, Denver is now 0-8 against the over/under in their last 8 games. Not only they played with a much lower number of points, but they’ve also failed to match their pace this year, so it’s something well worth keeping an eye on.
The Charlotte Hornets lost both away games and won at home, so their records, SU and ATS, match Denver’s. The also started off the season with three unders, and stretching back to the last season, stayed 5 consecutive times below the expected line. This has all come without their top defender Kidd-Gilchrist, but also without secondary playmaker Batum, which is obviously more important.
A unique ranking system – AdmiRank helps you understand how good NBA teams are on a scale to 100. Both sides lost their last games, causing a slight downtrend. This season’s performances have confirmed what we know about these two teams. The Hornets will be jockeying for one of the lesser play spots in the East, playing basketball slightly worse than average. The Nuggets have a slight edge with superior talent, but it might not be enough for them to grab a spot above the line in their own conference.
The previous encounter back in March broke a streak of 7 consecutive unders between two sides. Further, the teams match up well position per position, and MKG rejoined the Hornets after spending last weeks with his family on personal leave. He might not play in this one yet, but there are plenty of signs pointing towards under points.
The odds setters agree with similar situation these teams are in, so a pick-em at the opening of the market does seem as a perfect choice. The game will surely be decided by a few bounces of the ball or a good game of an individual and I’m not betting the spread here. I’m after the total points. Recent trends have obviously nudged the bookies to adjust and set up a lower line than they probably would, and should. In March, Charlotte and Denver played two games, and the lines were set at 219 and 222. The adjustment is just too big and I’m taking the over. There are early indications that the public will be on the under, making my pick look even better, but more importantly, slowing my actual bet placement for a few hours. I hope to get over 211 points (-110), but I’ll be taking lower odds in case there’s no such line movement.
My Pick: (no wager on the spread)
Total: over 212 points (-110)
