The vastly improved Boston College Eagles will test their mettle at home in Massachusetts against ACC Conference rivals the Florida State Seminoles. The contest is slated to begin on Friday, October 27th at 8:00 p.m. EST. The game can be watched via ESPN for your early football entertainment before Saturday rolls around. As of this article, Vegas has the Seminoles are a slim -2.5 point favorite and the over/under is at 45.
The Boston College Eagles just captured their second win in a row when they manhandled Virginia 41-10 on the road. As a result, the Eagles have scored 40 points in back to back games and have improved to 2-3 in the conference. Now, they will face a stout Florida State defense to test if they’ve truly taken their offense to the next level.
The Florida State Seminoles are entering this match-up after a disappointing defeat to Lamar Jackson and his Louisville Cardinals 31-28. This season has been an utter disappointment for head coach Jimbo Fisher and his Seminoles. Not only have they been decimated with injuries but they also have played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. If you don’t believe me, check out the injury report for Florida State coming into this battle.
When these two schools squared-off in 2016, the Seminoles rolled the Eagles at home 45-7. Florida State has now beaten the Boston College Eagles seven straight time. The last time the Eagles won was back in 2007 when they upset the Seminoles 28-21 at home.
Florida State Seminoles (2-4)
Who would have ever thought that the Florida State Seminoles could be watching the bowl games instead of participating in one? That may very well be the case if they cannot capture four more wins in the next six games. Yes, they do play the FCS’s Delaware but they also have to face the likes of Clemson and Florida. Either way, it starts this Friday when they travel up north to face a surging Eagles club.
Offensively, Florida State suffered an enormous setback when they lost Deondre Francois in their opener against the Crimson Tide. At that point, they were ranked 2nd in the nation and were a popular pick to challenge for the National Title. Six games later, they are still adjusting their offense under new quarterback James Blackman. The true freshman has had to learn on the fly but is improving as the season moves on. Overall, he has connected on 84 passes for 1,047 yards with seven touchdowns and six picks.
The Seminoles also are starting to find some footing in the running department in 2017. Better late than never, as James Blackman needs some of the pressure taken off him. Tailbacks Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick are also improving game by game. Together, the two have toted the rock 163 times for almost 900 yards with two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Patrick injured his knee against the Cardinals and is expected to miss some substantial time while on the mend.
Like in the running game, Florida State has two receivers that are carrying the load for the pass-catching division. Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray have combined for 46 receptions for just under 650 yards and six scores. Tate is athletic and is finding open space in the red zone. Coming into this game, he already has recorded five touchdowns on the year.
Defensively, the Seminoles are hanging tough even though they have been on the field for a lot of snaps this season. As a unit, the defense is 33rd in the country allowing only 350 yards a game to opposing offenses. They also are pretty good in the red zone, surrendering only 22 points a contest. Several standouts have seen significant time lost to injuries so those numbers are a bit skewed also.
Boston College Eagles (4-4)
The Boston College Eagles may be .500 but take a look at the quality of those opponents that beat them. So far, they have fallen to Clemson, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and on the road at Wake Forest. Almost every one of those defeats is looking better as the season wears on. Nevertheless, they have won three of their last four and are now poised to beat the Seminoles for the first time in 10 years.
Boston College tries to remain balanced on offense but they have way more success running the ball than passing it. Freshman tailback AJ Dillon is proving that he may the special player that pushes them into a bowl game in 2017. Dillon has been machine-like, running for almost 700 yards on 152 carries with six touchdowns. The greenhorn has shown flashes of brilliance on the big stage. For example, he dashed for 272 yards on 39 carries with four trips to pay-dirt against Louisville.
Four receivers all contribute to helping the Boston College air attack keep team’s secondaries honest. Altogether, the foursome has seized just under 80 catches for over 900 yards and four scores. All five receivers have caught at least 14 passes and all have at least 150 yards receiving. Kobay White leads the group with 24 catches for 314 yards. Like Eagles teams from the past, tight end Tommy Sweeny is a force to be reckoned with. Number 89 has 19 grabs for 234 yards and two scores.
Boston College’s defense is a tale of two personalities. Their secondary is steady, holding other school’s receiving corps to only 197 yards through the air (33rd). Conversely, the front seven is continually gashed for big yardage by opposing offenses. Overall, they rank 113th in the country, giving up a mind-boggling 224 yards a contest. Last week the unit played its best game of the year, holding Virginia to under 250 yards of total offense.
Prediction
Statistically, the Seminoles offense just isn’t that impressive, but they have been hanging around this season. Florida State’s last three defeats have come by six points or fewer. Furthermore, their two wins came by seven points each. With that being said, it’s easy to see why the line is so close even though both clubs are trending in opposite directions.
As for the Eagles, they seem to be hitting their stride as of late. They have 86 combined points in their last two events. What truly concerns me is that they will be going up against a very talented Seminole defense. Also, Florida State will have some extra motivation because of the controversy surrounding their general. Jimbo Fisher had a negative reaction that went viral when taunted by a student over his performance as a coach. For that reason, I’m not going to go near this coin flip of a line here.
On the flip side, pardon the pun, I really think that the over 45 is the play in this ACC dance. Frankly, I’m surprised it’s so low. Yes, the Seminoles are a talented defensive bunch, but they also are plagued with injuries. Besides, the Eagles have hit 86 points in two games. Asking them to hit just a quarter of that in this showdown shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Plus, Florida State is starting to get their run game going. Now, they have a chance to really shine against the weak front seven of Boston College. Throw all of that in a pot and mix it up and the recipe is that of an over. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Seminoles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
The Seminoles are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Seminoles last 6 games overall.
The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
The Under is 7-2-1 in the Eagles last 10 Friday games.
