The Virginia Cavaliers look to get back to their winning ways when they travel to Heinz Field to play the Pittsburgh Panthers in an ACC Conference game. The contest is set to get started on Saturday, October 28th at 12:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on the CHSS. Line setters have placed the Panthers as a -3 point favorite and the over/under at 50.
The Virginia Cavaliers four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt last week when the Boston College Eagles creamed them 41-10. Until then, the Cavaliers were on a roll and had only been defeated by the Indiana Hoosiers back in Week 3. Now, they will need to rebound on the road against a Panthers squad that is coming off their biggest win of the year.
The Pittsburgh Panthers put an end to their two-game losing streak when they went into Duke’s house and left with a 24-17 victory. The win was their first over a team that was at least .500 on the year. Before that, Pittsburgh had only beaten the FCS’s Youngstown State and Rice. This game will prove if they have turned things around or if the win last week was merely a mirage.
Last year in Virginia, the Panthers offense found plenty of success as they rolled up 45 points in a 45-31 win over the Virginia Cavaliers. The victory was Pittsburgh’s second win in a row over the Cavaliers. Overall, the Panthers have won four of the last seven so Virginia can even the score with a road win on Saturday.
Virginia Cavaliers (5-2)
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall had the Cavaliers trending in the right direction. After their home loss at the hands of the Hoosiers in Week 2, Virginia went on a tear and reeled off four straight wins. Unfortunately, they very well might have played their worst game of the year last week against the Eagles. Only time will tell if they can recover from such a disappointing setback. Nevertheless, they still are 5-2 and are well on their way to playing in a worthwhile Bowl.
Quarterback Kurt Benkert has been asked to lead the Cavalier offense and he has answered the bell. The senior has completed 62 percent of his throws for just over 1,800 yards. More importantly, the Florida native has tossed up 15 touchdowns and only served up four picks. Last week’s game was the only one since the season began in which he failed to throw for a score.
Running the football has been a bit of a problem for Virginia this season. Currently, the Cavaliers rank 109th in the country, rushing for only 123 yards a game. Even with the low numbers, tailback Jordan Ellis has been good. Ellis has taken the ball for 142 carries for just over 600 yards and five scores. However, he is the only player that has touched the ball more than 17 times out of the backfield.
Five wide receivers have all caught at least 15 passes from Kurt Benkert in 2017. Plus, all five of those pass catchers have all went over the 100-yard mark. Also, everyone one of them has found the back of the end zone against their opponents. Olamide Zaccheaus leads this unit with 49 catches for 505 yards and four touchdowns. Two other receivers have also scored four touchdowns each.
In four victories this year, the Cavaliers have allowed no more than 23 points to its opponents. In the two defeats, Virginia has given up a total of 75. The beatdown given by Boston College should be enough to inspire them to return to their winning ways. Overall, the defense has yielded 23 points per contest (48th) and 342 total yards a game (29th).
Pittsburgh Panthers (3-5)
Finally, the Pittsburgh Panthers got a win that was worth some bragging rights for this year’s campaign. Until then, the Panthers had only two victories to over-matched squads. Hopefully, the win will give head coach Pat Narduzzi’s squad some confidence heading into this game against Virginia.
Quarterback play has been spotty at best for the Panther’s offense this season. Max Browne and Ben Dinucci have shared about the same reps in 2017. Also, both have performed at about the same level. Browne has 997 yards with five touchdowns and two picks. Dinucci has almost 800 yards while throwing three scores and three interceptions. After a season-ending injury, Browne will have to watch as the team is in Dinucci’s hands now.
Four different tailbacks will be taking some shots at the Virginia front seven on Saturday. All four have at least 20 carries and all have over four yards a touch. Still, the Panthers struggle to run against teams, as they come into this game ranked 89th in the country.
Qadree Ollison and Quadree Henderson are both Swiss Army knives for the Pitt offense. Ollison has 68 carries for 283 yards and four scores. He also has 16 catches for 136 yards and one trip to the back of the end zone. Henderson has toted the rock 24 times for 135 yards and caught 11 more for 126. Unfortunately, he has yet to taste glory eight games into the season.
Two wide receivers basically do all the heavy lifting for the offense when they need to move the ball down the field via the pass. Jester Weah and Rafael Araujo-Lopes have combined for 63 grabs for just over 900 yards and four scores. Weah leads the squad with 458 yards and three touchdowns.
On defense, 2017 has been a year that the Panthers would lie to forget. Normally, the unit plays well against the run and the pass. This year, that just hasn’t been the case. Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the nation defending the pass. The secondary ranks 115th, giving up 263 yards a contest. The front seven isn’t much of a threat either. In all, they have surrendered 168 yards a game (68th).
Prediction
I have to admit that I was a little surprised when I saw that the Pittsburgh Panthers were three-point favorites for this ACC match-up. Clearly, the Cavaliers have the better defense and can move the ball more evenly down the field. Pittsburgh has been running the football better but Virginia can balance their offense out too. Plus, there is little doubt that the Cavaliers have the best quarterback of the two clubs. Give me Virginia in an outright win at +150 and become bowl eligible.
Also, Las Vegas had this total at 53.5. Now, it has come down to 50. I have to say that I side with the public on this because Virginia has allowed no more than 23 points to its conquered opponents in 2017. Obviously, I think the Cavaliers are going to win and they will do it on that side of the ball. Furthermore, I’m not impressed with quarterback Ben Dinucci. He has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in the three games he has started. I wish I could have gotten this under in at 53 but I still think the 50 will work. Take Virginia to win outright in a relatively low scoring game. Cavaliers beat the Panthers to the tune of 27-20. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Cavaliers are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Under is 19-8-1 in the Cavaliers last 28 conference games.
The Panthers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
The Panthers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Panthers last 5 games overall.
Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
