The fourth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs head into Ames, Iowa to play in a Big-12 Conference throw down with the feisty Iowa State Cyclones this weekend. The clash between the two schools is scheduled to go off on Saturday, October 28th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The game will be televised on the ABC and ESPN2 Networks for some afternoon football enjoyment. As of this write-up, the Horned Frogs are a -6.5 point favorite and the contest’s total now sits at 48.5 points.
The TCU Horned Frogs are 4-0 in the Big-12 conference after snuffing out the Kansas Jayhawks 43-0. A victory this weekend in Iowa would move their overall record to 8-0 and keep them right in the middle of the College Football Playoff race.
The Iowa State Cyclones have been on a three-game winning streak after they went into Norman, and defeated the Oklahoma Sooners. Last week, they found themselves on the road in Lubbock against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. In that battle, the Cyclones suppressed the Red Raiders potent offense and came out with a 31-13 road win. Now, Iowa State sits 3-1 in the conference and 5-2 overall.
These two programs met up in Texas last year and the TCU Horned Frogs doubled up the Cyclones 41-20. TCU has won four straight in the series and nine out of the last 10.
(4) TCU Horned Frogs (7-0)
A few weeks back, a bunch of top teams in college football lost and the Horned Frogs benefited, quietly climbing the rankings. Now, they are in a good position to make a run at a spot in this year’s playoffs. If they win the Big-12 championship and remain undefeated, they will not be denied a chance to win it all.
Quarterback Kenny Hill has been superb in 2017. Last week against a weak Jayhawk squad, he put up his best numbers of the season. Hill threw the ball for 278 yards with five of those throws going for touchdowns. He also didn’t serve up a pick. Overall, the senior signal-caller has completed an impressive 70 percent of his passes for 1,728 yards with 15 scores and only three picks.
The Horned Frogs’ offense is as balanced as a team can get. They pass the ball with the same frequency that they run it. Two tailbacks create most of the yardage when taking to the ground. Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks have combined for almost 850 yards rushing with seven touchdowns. Anderson leads the team with 532 yards and six scores. Also, sophomore running back Sewo Olonilua is a beast in the red zone. The 6’3, 230-pound back has six trips to pay-dirt.
Like in the running game, the passing attack also features a plethora of receivers that contribute to the offense. Three of them have had at least 20 catches and all four have found the back of the end zone. Furthermore, three of them have are well over 200 yards receiving and another almost 400.
Defensively, the Horned Frogs are allowing only 14.9 points and 291.3 yards per game. Those stats are ninth and eleventh in the country. The front seven has performed especially well, surrendering only 80 yards a game on the ground (3rd). Linebacker Travin Howard leads the TCU Horned Frogs with 51 tackles, defensive end Ben Banogu has 4.5 sacks and Nick Orr has two picks.
Iowa State Cyclones (5-2)
The Iowa State Cyclones are 5-2 with two of those losses coming by a combined 13 points. In fact, the three-point loss to Iowa came in overtime. The Cyclones have to be considered a surprise this year going 3-1 in the conference with wins at Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They are a scrappy club that has hung around with every team they have played. Their 6-1 record against the spread is a testament to that.
Offensively, the Cyclones are more of a passing team than a running one. Two quarterbacks have led the way this year for Iowa State and both have performed fairly well. Jacob Park handled the duties in their first four contests. He completed 61 percent of his passes for nine touchdowns and five picks.
Jacob Park had a horrible game at Texas and was benched in favor of senior Kyle Kempt. Kempt responded with an amazing performance in their upset win in Norman. He also has been under center for Iowa state’s last two victories. In three games, he has thrown for 657 yards with seven touchdowns and only one interception.
The Cyclones have a one-man show out of their backfield on Saturdays. As a whole, the team doesn’t rank very high with only 123 yards per game on the ground (110th). Nevertheless, tailback David Montgomery has done well called upon to move the chains. Montgomery has 131 carries for 643 yards and eight trips to the promised land. No other Cyclone running back even has more than 30 carries to their credit.
On defense, Iowa State is allowing 20.4 points (22nd) and 353.3 yards per game (35th). It is safe to say that this unit has exceeded expectations in 2017. Linebacker Joel Lanning is a tackling machine. He leads the Cyclones with 78. Lineman JaQuan Bailey has three sacks and Kamari Cotton-Moya has three picks to lead the secondary. A balanced TCU offense will be a stiff test for this unit this weekend.
Prediction
Las Vegas has the TCU Horned Frogs as less than a touchdown favorite (-6.5) for this game in Ames, Iowa. To me, that shows that they do respect the Cyclones ability to hang around with tougher teams. I believe the Horned Frogs are the better team because they are balanced on offense and sport the better defense. Still, there is something about this line that scares me a bit. Yes, TCU could easily win this by a touchdown or even by two but I’m not suggesting to bet on it. If you are a spread bettor, then I’d buy that up to 7.5 for some security.
Line setters also have this game’s total at 48.5. That total is down nearly five points from when it was originally posted. The public has pushed this downward but I think the experts were closer to the truth. TCU will find ways to score here. They just have too many contributors not to. Also, I think the Cyclones can score enough at home to push this contest’s total 48.5 to the over. Especially, if this game remains tightly contested. Take the over 48.5 a root for the offenses to eclipse that mark in the fourth quarter of a tight game. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
The Under is 6-1 in the Horned Frogs last 7 conference games.
The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Over is 7-3 in Cyclones last 10 home games.
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