The Duke Blue Devils were not always like this, but now they have become a one-and-done program like Kentucky. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has changed his recruiting philosophy in the latter stages of his career. He would rather have high-upside talents for a single season than not land such stars on the recruiting trail. If he had doubts about this approach, they were eliminated or at least severely reduced in his 2015 national championship season, powered by Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, and Tyus Jones. Heading into a new season, Coach K’s one-and-done way is still very much in evidence. If he is going to make the Final Four and have a shot at the national title, he will need his one-and-dones to be great.
Offseason Changes
When a program moves to a one-and-done model, the changes are abundant. Jayson Tatum, the No. 3 pick in the NBA Draft, is gone. Luke Kennard was not a one-and-doner, but he is gone to the NBA as well. In to replace the departures are two of the most heralded recruits in the country, one in the backcourt and one in the frontcourt. The backcourt recruit is Trevon Duval, who should be a lightning-quick orchestrator of the Duke offense. Duval should give cohesion and stability to an offense which needed a new floor general. The frontcourt recruit is Marvin Bagley, who is seen as a generational talent with his range, two-way prowess, length, and size. If Bagley is as agile and as disruptive on defense as many people think he is, Duke could take a soft defense and make it radically better this season.
Will Succeed If…
They get wing scoring from players other than Grayson Allen. The senior is someone Duke can count on to fill up the hoop and rain down three-point buckets this season, but getting someone else to help him – which Kennard was last season – will be vital in spacing the floor and making sure Allen is not double-teamed very often. Duke has to get balance from its offense, something it didn’t always have last season. The Blue Devils went very cold in the second half of their surprising NCAA Tournament loss to South Carolina last March. Allen took bad shots because he panicked and wasn’t able to share the ball or trust his teammates as well as he should have. If Duke finds the multi-source perimeter scoring it is looking for, it will be very hard to stop.
Won’t Succeed If…
Bagley’s impact at the defensive end of the floor is not substantial. Duke’s defense gave way in the second half against South Carolina, and historically, when Duke loses in the NCAA Tournament, the defense is the first thing to go. The Blue Devils can be overrun by quick guards, and so Bagley is useful because he can deter players at the rim, stopping dribble drives and forcing smaller offensive players to reconsider their drives to the hoop. If Bagley is not that kind of presence, Duke will be in trouble, even if its offense thrives.
Roster
Trevon Duval
Gary Trent Jr.
Grayson Allen
Jordan Tucker
Javin DeLaurier
Jordan Goldwire
Alex O’Connell
Marques Bolden
Antonio Vrankovic
Wendell Carter Jr.
Marvin Bagley III
Jack White
Justin Robinson
Mike Buckmire
Brennan Besser
Schedule & Outlook
We’ll get to know a lot about Duke on November 14th when they play Michigan State on a neutral site. After that, they’ll also have a big test at Indiana on November 29th. Other than that, their non-conference schedule seems to be a bit of a breeze. They won’t be challenged very often until they hit ACC play.
The Blue Devils always play a challenging schedule, and exist in the cutthroat Atlantic Coast Conference. They will be helped by North Carolina’s departures and Louisville’s coaching change, but the one-and-done model’s great flaw is the newness of the roster, which invites a lack of cohesion. Duke should certainly be a Sweet 16 team, but going beyond that is hard to trust this season.
The 2018 March Madness futures are out. There has been plenty of news to keep up with in the offseason but keep an eye on the betting lines as they move around at Diamond Sportsbook! Get the latest college basketball betting lines right here.
