Two basketball worlds will collide on Sunday. The Houston Rockets, a team that can attempt 50 three-pointers on any given night, will host the Utah Jazz, a team that preys on teams who play reckless ball by playing shutdown defense and slow, methodical offense. Which style will prevail in Toyota Center? Let’s find out.
Jazz at Rockets
Spread: Houston -6.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 200 points (-110)
In a search for offense, the Jazz forget to play D against Toronto
If you are a Jazz fan, you’ve already got a full package. There were some good wins, there were some expected wins, and then there were some games that you’d want to forget. Through the tough start of the season – schedule-wise, but also considering the changes to the starting lineup – the Jazz remained in the character, for good or worse. On Friday, hosting a road worn Raptors, the Jazz were not playing their characteristic basketball.
Toronto won, 109-100, shooting 53.7 percent from the field, and that’s the first figure the Jazz coaching staff will show players after the game. It forced Utah to play from behind the entire game, and even though they never were completely out of it, they were out of control of it. As good as a team they are defensively, that part of the game must not take a day off like ever, as their offensive struggles are very much real too. Losing Hayward and adding Rubio was supposed to hurt them, but they’ve actually gotten much more out of the positions that most thought. However, their usual scorers are struggling. It continued in the last game as well, as Rodney Hood shot just 6-of-19 to score 17 points, while Joe Johnson didn’t dress to heal the injury. Rubio’s 30 point game against Portland quickly died on the average, as he showed his old self by scoring 13 points on 3-of-12 shooting, missing all the four attempts from the deep. Gobert is not taking any of the space available in the offensive hierarchy, posting numbers in low teens on a small number of attempts. The lone truly bright spot on the offense is the rookie Donovan Mitchell who is hungry, athletic and a natural scorer. He lead the team in points against Toronto with 25 points, coming in as a backup guard.
Joe Johnson may not have a big impact on the scoresheet this season, but he gives Utah another ball handler with the second unit, and a shot creator in need. He’ll miss more time, and the Jazz have to find a way to fill his role. After the game in Houston, the Jazz are back home again.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Sunday, November 5th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ATTSN
It’s raining threes in Houston
Are you surprised that the Houston Rockets responded to shooting badly from the perimeter by doubling the attempts from out there. Yeah, me neither. After losing a pair to Philly and Memphis due to shots not falling, the Rockets responded and scored 119 points in each of the previous two games, winning them both. Against the New York Knicks, they attempted 52 three-pointers and 36 shots inside the arc. Two night later, in Atlanta, the ratio was 47-42. More shooting allowed their players to get into some kind of a rhythm, although they still aren’t very efficient.
Houston last played on Friday, when they comfortably won over the Atlanta Hawks 119-104. Hot shooting in the first half (57 percent), and getting the fast break going early led to a season-high 69 points at the break. They pushed the lead throughout the game until it reached 30 points with 7 minutes to go. After visitors emptied the bench the Hawks cut this deficit in half to make the score look better. The Rockets managed to hit 16-of-47 deep tries (11-of-22 in the first half), led by James Harden’s contribution of 6-of-11. He’s carrying this team in a similar fashion like last year, at least for the time being. Harden scored 29 points (21 by intermission) and had 11 assists. Eric Gordon followed his lead with a nice 20 points, 5 assists and 4 steals, and three other starters scored in double digits as well. The Rockets even got an out-of-character offensive output from Mbah a Moute, who led the bench with 20 points, missing just three attempts from the field.
Rockets guard Chris Paul, sidelined for nine games because of the injured right knee, hasn’t been cleared for practice, and his return is at least a couple weeks away. The win in Atlanta was first since 2012.
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets Game Trends & Prediction
The Jazz couldn’t make perfect homestand, losing to the Raptors and failing to cover, and have only covered in the previous game due to overtime. Despite an up and down period on play, the Jazz are making money. They are 6-3 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. The low lines, an overtime and some defensive miscues in the last game finally got the Jazz games over the points lines. The 109 points they surrendered last game was the most this season, while they scored in triple digits for the third times in a row. Still, the unders is still prevailing 3-5-1, with no road games over the line.
The Houston Rockets covered in both wins, improving to a decent 5-5 ATS record overall. They only played three games at home thus far, and covered in just one of these. The barrage of the threes, combined with a below average defense, finally started breaking down the total line. Rockets last three games ended over the projected total points line. This nice plus streak was preceded by 6 consecutive unders, so it’s either hot or cold with the Rockets. At home, Houston has a 1-2 O/U record.
Admi-Rank: Wins against inferior opposition aren’t rewarded much for the Houston Rockets, but those two games helped them break out of a slump. They are a better team than Utah, as the Jazz struggle to find enough consistency to be ranked in the top tier as of now.
If you had not already figured from my previous scribblings, I have much respect for the Utah Jazz and how they manage to do things right against expectations. On the other hand, the Rockets success is more of a product of the modern-day NBA. But this doesn’t change the fact that the Jazz will have much struggle to match the offensive output of Houston, especially as Harden’s team doesn’t really care whether they hit a shot or not, nor if they take shots with higher degree of difficulty than they could have possibly gotten with a few extra passes.
The bookies are teasing us with a 6-point home spread, an offer I’m willing to accept. I value the Jazz more than the market does, so I’m confident when it comes to betting against them. My numbers show -7.5 advantage to the Rockets, so take the home team to win by at least 6+ points. The total points line also gives respect to the Utah Jazz, with 200 points set. This is a number the public will jump on, but the actual estimations show that it’s only a slight value. Fair line is 202, so there’s no room for a double bet here.
My Pick: Houston -6 (-110)
Total: (no wager on the total points here)
