One team has reached the Western Conference Finals with a genuine chance of knocking off the Warriors. The other were knocked out of the playoff race in January. One team started the season 4-0, the other sacked the coach and quarantined disgruntled star after being humiliated in the first three games. Still, the San Antonio Spurs look vulnerable as ever hosting the lowly Phoenix Suns on Sunday evening.
Suns at Spurs
Spread: San Antonio -10 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 215.5 points (-110)
Winning is better than losing
You already know all about the miserable first week in the Phoenix Suns organization, so I’m not going to repeat myself. However, it makes the turnaround even more impressive. The Suns suddenly started playing and winning. They enjoyed the East Coast with wins in Washington and Brooklyn, before ending it on a sour note with a bad loss to the Knicks. The Suns fell behind by 21 in the first 13 minutes of the game and couldn’t pull a comeback despite reducing the deficit to just 6 points in the third quarter, eventually losing 107-120 in Madison Square Arena.
The Suns came out cold. They missed 15 straight shots during one period of play in the first quarter, that also included a head-on collision of hot-scoring forward T.J. Warren with Enes Kanter that sent both men out. While Kanter was able to return, Phoenix missed their No. 2 scorer behind Devin Booker for the remainder of the game. Booker finished with 34 points to lead Phoenix, but no other Suns player had more than 15 points. The Suns shot 35 percent from the field for the game and just 28 percent from 3-point range. When this happens, they are doomed, as the defense won’t switch on so easily for this team. Youngsters were probably a bit homesick as Bender, Chriss, and James had terrible outings. Former Knick Tyson Chandler turned a clock back for a 15-10 double-double, but don’t expect this to become (return to) standard.
T.J. Warren suffered a concussion during the preseason and also had a head injury last season, so the Suns should take the easy-on approach with him. If he’s forced to miss time (likely), Josh Jackson will probably start and would see a big bump in minutes. A visit to San Antonio concludes the five-game road trip that has seen the Suns split the first four games.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Sunday, November 5th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSW, Fox Sports Arizona
The Spurs stop losing streak at four behind strong bench showing.
Future Hall of Famer, Manu Ginobili, aged 40, was told to take a break and support his team from street clothes on Friday night. Instead, the Argentinian put on a Spurs jersey for a 1,000th time during the regular season, and led a terrific reserve unit performance to help his team put an end to one of the worst losing streaks in last few decades. It was anything but smooth, but the Spurs finally got a W, coming victorious against the usual customers, the Charlotte Hornets.
Manu Ginobili 10 points, five assists, four rebounds night included a fourth-quarter dunk and a pass to Rudy Gay’s dunk, as the veterans showed they have plenty gas left in the tank. Bryn Forbes came out of nowhere to score 22 points on 8-of-11 shooting and Gay score 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting, as the Spurs bench outscored their counterparts 62-16. It was a timely effort as well, as LaMarcus Aldridge couldn’t pull out another great game, finishing with a subpar 14 points and 7 rebounds. It was also a product of a terrific Popovich move, who switched Mills and Murray at the point guard position, and this helped both players. Mills have been ice cold to start the season, but hit 4-of-7 three-pointers in a starter’s role, finishing the game with season-high 17 points. The Spurs still couldn’t get the long shot to fall, shooting 9-of-27 from three-point range. Still, they held the Hornets to a Spurs-like 41 percent shooting, and the game would probably be secured earlier in the night should they boxed out a little bit better and wouldn’t give up 42 free throws to the Hornets.
After weeks of utter silence, the Spurs finally had some sort of news about Kawhi Leonard. He’s still in recovery, and at least a couple of weeks away from playing. French internationals Lauvergne and Parker also remain out.
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs Game Trends & Prediction
The Phoenix Suns are 5-4 against the spread overall, and 3-2 on the road. They were underdogs in all but one game this season, even after the surge of blood into their cells. Each of this road trip four-game ended in an over, making the Suns games 6-3 against the total points lines, and 4-1 away from home. They’ve held only one team below 114 points this season (Utah).
This season is not one with the usual Spurs margins, not yet anyway. They are tiny favorites against mediocre teams and as a result, they managed to provide value for their backers’ investments. They are only 4-5 against the spread so far, but 3-1 at home, where they feel much more comfortable. The game with Charlotte eclipsed the total points line, resulting in 4th over this season, as the outcome largely depends on whether the Spurs shoot a good percentage or not.
Admi-Rank: The Suns were so low at the bottom that even a 13 point loss doesn’t hurt them after two wins. Of course, injury to Warren doesn’t come to effect here. On the other side, the Spurs aren’t yet proven to be ready for the previous heights. They are still a much better team than the Suns.
The Suns may be 4-5 this season, but two of them with were end-game deciders against poor teams, and they got lucky in Washington to catch the Wizards a bit shorthanded and not ready. The other, fourth win is the most telling. The Suns defeated Utah Jazz, a team the Spurs compare well to at this point (with this roster available). The Suns won because the Jazz don’t have enough firepower and couldn’t hold the Suns 30 points below their usual average. However, the game was dictated by the Jazz, and the Spurs will likely control the flow and the tempo of this one as well. Also, with Warren likely out of the picture, the Suns now don’t have an upper hand in scoring, or at least not to the same extent.
Since the books also believe that Warren won’t play, they’ve released the early odds, and the handicap is much larger than I had hoped for. The Spurs face a 10-point spread against the Suns, and aren’t exactly a team who can be trusted to crush any opposition at this point. To win, yes, but I’m not going against such a large spread here. My pick for you concerns the total points. As the Suns have already shown that they can’t force their hectic style of play on the old school teams, and the Spurs extend their ball possession with strong offensive rebounding, the only way I can see this going over the 215.5 lines is that the Spurs score 120+, which is something I’m willing to risk that it won’t happen. take the minus points to cash in.
My Pick: (no bet on the spread here)
Total: Under 215.5 points (-110)
