The Western Conference-leading Houston Rockets have lost only three games so far, beating both NBA finalists. Still, on Saturday, they’ve got to be thinking – Oh, no, not these guys again – as they’ll host the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had already beaten them twice this season.
Grizzlies at Rockets
Spread: Houston -7 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 207 points (-110)
The Grizzlies inconsistent but to be accounted for
The Memphis Grizzlies had four days of rest coming into this game, which was too long to stay on the road, so while they are technically in the middle of their road trip, they had plenty of time to relax after what’s supposed to be a down year blossomed to a 7-4 start. Memphis is in full control of their trajectory moving forward and have proven that they can play anyone and beat anyone, home or away. They are 2-1 during this Pacific coasting, winning against the Clippers and the Blazers and letting one slip to the Lakers. Yes, they are not perfect, but this is a good two-way team with some terrific players, and they are doing it shorthanded.
The loss to the Lakers was the worst they’ve looked this season. They’ve previously lost to now 2-10 Dallas and blown double-digit leads to Orlando and Charlotte, but they just couldn’t get it together against the Lakers. Two night after, in a hostile Moda Center, the Grizzlies have shown their teeth and frustrated Trail Blazers into a 44 percent shooting night by forcing them to shoot over the top for the most part. Conley, Gasol, and Evans led the way while CJ McCollum had himself a night, finishing with 36 points. He missed a game-winning shot at the end of regulation, though. It’s the usual trio. The two stars are shouldering the biggest load, but Evans’ contribution has been terrific as well. He’s probably leading any early conversation about the 6th Man of the Year Award. He’s leading the Memphis bench who is 3rd in scoring in the NBA, as this unit plays their hearts out each night. Led by Evans’ 21 points, they scored 38 in Portland, slightly below average, but they are missing a legit scorer in Dillon Brooks, who has been loaned to the first unit due to injuries.
Starting forward JaMychal Green is close to return, (as is backup guard Selden) but won’t play in this game. However, Ben McLemore is expected to make his season debut after missing the first eleven games recovering from an offseason foot surgery. He should get ten minutes off the bench.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Saturday, November 11th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ATTSN-SW, FSSE-M
The Rockets gladly take what is free
It was a tighter encounter than I had hoped, given a wager on Houston, but the Rockets still figured a way to come up with a 117-113 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’ve also escaped the loss in the season opener against the Warriors, but this doesn’t change the fact that they’ve beaten two teams who stood in everyone’s path in the last three years. On Thursday, the Rockets won the game the old-fashioned way (well, as old-fashioned as they possibly can look) – by going strong after the rebounds, and hitting their free throw attempts.
I warned about their hot shooting probably cooling off during the long break, and it indeed happened. After shooting the lights out in the previous three games, the Rockets were only human against the bad Cavs defense. Led by Harden’s 8-of-21 night, the Rockets shot 46.8 percent from the field and connected on just 16-of-46 three-pointers. It would doom them as the Cavs shot 55.6 percent on field goals, but the Rockets managed to create extra possessions (17 offensive rebounds, compared to just 22 defensive rebounds of the Cavs!) and by punishing overaggressiveness of the Cavaliers by scoring 29 points from the charity stripe (again, led by Harden’s 13-of-14 effort at the line). The Rockets only used 7 players (plus Bobby Brown who played just a few minutes), so it’s clear that they wanted to win badly. They opened up a big lead in the first half, but most of their 18-point lead evaporated once the shots stopped falling in the latter part of the second quarter. The most of the rest of the game was back and forth, but they once again created a bit of separation in the fourth, which had helped them smile at the final whistle.
Mbah a Moute sat out the last game due to a right knee contusion and it is unknown if he will be available for Saturday’s tilt against the Grizzlies. Paul remains out.
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets Game Trends & Prediction
Memphis covered in Portland, which has been a rather rare occurrence since they’ve beaten the Rockets twice. For the season, the Grizz are 6-5. After two rather out of the character games in Los Angeles, this one was an under, despite a rather low line (200.5). They also played both games against the Rockets on minus side, and they are 3-7 against the over/under overall.
Despite leading by 13 in the fourth, the Rockets failed to cover a 5.5-point spread, dropping to 6-6 against the spread overall, and 2-3 at home. The total points line was topped (barely), so they are split on the over/under as well. Their last five games ended up over the line, preceded by five consecutive unders.
Admi-Rank: Both of these teams are good. Being over 80 means that you can go as far as 50 wins in a season, and this means that you’re in the playoffs, even in the West. The teams have also managed to retain their rating without any serious fluctuations, so I’m confident that they are placed well. The Rockets do have an edge, and should be favored to win.
While Houston won’t usually score in double digits, don’t throw off their scoring against the Grizzlies as not telling. The Grizzlies frustrated them by a stingy defense, allowing 89 and 90 points in the previous two meetings just weeks ago. By doing it twice, they gained more confidence going forward. However, the Rockets have already scored 137 points on Utah defense, so if they can get hot early, it’s going to be tough slowing them down. The Rockets also want this game, as it gives them at least an opportunity to tie the season series – you never know why this could be important come April.
Houston has to win by 7 points to push it, and by 8 to win against the spread, so the books are not going to let up another try with the value on the home team. My fair number is 6.5, so there’s no place to go with this offer. On the totals, we’ve seen something of a hedge made by the odds setters. The line is set to 207, down from 213.5 points from the first meeting between the two sides, and up from 203 line set in Memphis. This action gives us a rare opportunity to have a good value on the over side on Houston’s games, and I’m not going to pass on it. The Grizzlies are good defensively, but the Rockets were very cold from outside to start this season, and this game will not be like the first two. Go with the over points.
My Pick: (no total points wager here)
Total: Over 207 points (-110)
