The Denver Nuggets will host the Orlando Magic on Saturday in a game featuring two teams who can be very pleased with where they stand at. The similarities don’t stop here – these two franchises have a very similar build, approach to the basketball and style of play. It’ll be like playing yourself in a mirror, except one has to lose.
Magic at Nuggets
Spread: Denver Nuggets -8 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 222 points (-110)
The Magic win against shorthanded Knicks
The Orlando Magic responded fairly well to the first crisis and losing to Chicago and Boston at home, by beating the New York Knicks, a team which had been gaining momentum over the past week. However, the win came with a grain of salt to it, as the Knicks played without Porzingis. The Magic players still find it sweet enough.
First half was about as even as it gets, but the Magic kept pushing and eventually broken the deadlock in the third, gaining some much-welcomed separation. The Knicks had no strength to respond and the lead increased slowly until the final margin without ever being threatened. Orlando had the biggest lead of 16 in a game that finished 112-99. Fans probably enjoyed the game. There was not enough defense and the shots were falling for both sides. The Magic shot 53.8 percent from the field and 46.4 percent for the deep, resembling the early season hot shooting much more than the struggles against the Bulls and the Celtics. They hit only 13-of-22 free throws, so that was probably the focus of their next practice. Aaron Gordon continued his much-improved efficiency by an 8-of-11 FG shooting night that included 4-of-6 connections from downtown. Over the first 11 games, Gordon is shooting an incredible 55 percent from the field. While his two-pointers drop at basically the same rate as before (1 percent increase), he’s gone berserk from the three-point territory. Last season, Gordon has hit threes at 28.8 percent clip, attempting 3.3 per game. This year, he’s 57.5 percent for the most valuable shot in the game. If he would sustain it, it would go down in history as the best season ever. To put it in a different perspective, his contributions won’t last much longer. Before the bumps, bruises, cold streaks and defensive attention kick in, the Magic would have to figure out how to improve their defense. They are already better than last year, but they should be giving up 53 percent shooting to the Knicks without Porzingis. It starts with Elfrid Payton, who’s return to the starting lineup brought a nice stat line of 11 points and 11 assists, but he was also a guilty party for many defensive breakdowns on the most basic pick and rolls that opened shots for the Knicks. The Magic were also outworked on the glass, losing the rebounding battle 42-29, so if not for the Knicks sloppiness with the ball (23TOs) they would be looking at a three-game L streak.
But it’s how the Magic will look for the foreseeable future, as D.J. Augustin is out indefinitely with a hammy injury, a true shame after such a delightful start for this veteran guard. All the others will be available to play in Denver.
Place: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
Date/Time: Saturday, November 11th, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Altitude, FS Florida
The Nuggets protect the home court again
It’s hard to hide frustration, but it’s probably even harder to disguise happiness. The Denver Nuggets are back to enjoying the basketball with four wins from their last five games (they get a mulligan on the loss as it was to the Warriors), and they are winning some deciders that would have probably lost in the past. It shows growth, and it was present on Thursday, when they downed division rivals Oklahoma City Thunder 102-94.
Frankly, I expected much more points to be scored, so if you would have told me that the Nuggets would score only 102 points, I’d think they would lose. But the defense has been slightly improved, and the Thunder are a mess, so even on a poor shooting night, the Nuggets managed to prevail. The 46 percent from the field isn’t that bad, but the deep shot wouldn’t fall. The Nuggets were 9-of-27, and that’s when you count in Mudiay’s unordinary 4-of-4 night. The young point guard once again showed why the Nuggets need a point guard in the starting lineup. He completely outplayed Jamal Murray, scoring 21 points and added 7 rebounds and 5 assists off the bench. During his court time, Denver was +17, without him, they were losing this game. Jokic was also very solid, with 15 points, 11 boards, but the Thunder countered his willingness to pass by paying extra attention to backdoor cuts, so he wasn’t able to orchestrate the offense like a point guard can. Millsap carried a big load offensively too, and he was team’s second-leading scorer for the night with 17 points. But the Nuggets tend to force the ball his way when nothing much is happening, so the workload was partially out of necessity, and it showed on the 6-of-17 shooting effort. Defensively, they did some nice things. Most importantly, they ran back hard and stopped easy transition points the Thunder feast on. They also let Westbrook take any jumpers he’d like, and he hurt his team by shooting 6-of-22 looking nothing like MVP (well, he did if we are still counting Rose as a legitimate award winner). It was a welcoming sight for the Nuggets, who had struggled stopping the deep penetration in previous games due to lack of rim-protecting big.
The Nuggets wrap up the six-game homestand against the Magic, but they won’t be away long, as they only get to play in Portland before coming back home.
Orlando Magic at Denver Nuggets Game Trends & Prediction
The Orlando Magic covered the spread against the Knicks, improving to 6-5. Despite an average ATS record, they tend to either win by double digits, or lose, which is handy for us punters. They’ve stringed 5 unders in a row, holding three of the five opponents to exactly 99 points, while also being a guilty party in the other two. For the season, Orlando is 4-7 against the over/under.
Denver also covered, but they haven’t been impressive in terms of return, going 4-8 overall and 3-4 at home against the spread. The last game was the third under in the last four games, and they are surprisingly a 4-8 against the total points lines. Despite this, they are unpredictable. They started off the season with unders, and when the market lowered the lines, their games went over. It’s a matter of time when they turn it around again.
Admi-Rank: The Magic a 7-4, fourth in the East and just been praised for winning in double digits. Still, I rank them below the average. The improvement is there, but the bad games can be disregarded, and the way they’ve been shooting the ball, the decline is inevitable. The Nuggets are peaking due to a homestand, but it doesn’t change the fact that they improved their play much. They are the better team here.
I’m really looking forward to this game. Both coaches helped their teams surpass what was thought to be their talent level, making things work on players who aren’t household names. This can help us against some public teams, but not here, where the two are going against each other. There are some potentially decisive factors to consider though. Don’t expect the Magic to perform too well on the road, where their percentages will drop more quickly. And then there’s this Augustin injury that will cost them against better teams. Denver’s high altitude advantage should be ignored either. I’m not saying the Nuggets are going to steamroll over the Magic, but they should be expected to win.
The books are understanding well which team is better here, setting an 8-point cushion to the home side. The Magic could be tired after playing in Phoenix the previous night, and fatigue and the high altitude don’t mix well. I agree with this spread, so there’s no value on the either side, and no bet unless something significant happens with the Magic tonight (like an injury). I’m going after the total. The line is set to 222.5 points, and I’m staying under it. There’s a slight possibility that you’ll have a better price if the Suns and the Magic burn the nets, but I’m not risking any injury as most of the Magic players are offensive minded.
My Pick: (no total points wager here)
Total: Under 222.5 points (-110)
