The Charlotte Hornets will host the Orlando Magic in a game that will open the NBA Week 8 and both of these sides would really use a fresh start or the season will quickly be another lost one. Yes, it’s a marathon, but you don’t want to leave it all late or it may become too late.
Magic at Hornets
Spread: Charlotte -7.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over/under 221.5 points (-110)
Magic loss to Warriors wouldn’t mean much if they can win on the East
The Orlando Magic showed glimpses of what they could be early in the season, but have rarely replicated it in the last three weeks of November, losing one game after another. They reminded us of how good they can be with a strong win over the OKC Thunder. Against the Warriors – not so much.
The Magic lost 112-133 to the champions, and thus it shouldn’t be devastating for a lottery team. However, it was the attitude towards the game that is troubling, and this is not a new problem in Orlando. The body language was poor from the start. The defensive rotations were lazy and late, and defending Warriors asks for a small reaction time. From Nov. 11 through their blowout loss Friday night, the Magic allowed more points per possession than any team in the NBA. The struggles deepened against such a formidable offense – the Magic allowed the Warriors to sink 62.5 percent of their shots and score 78 points in the first half, and it was cruise control from there. I’ve already written about that contest in more detail in the preview to the Magic game tonight in New York. Losing one tonight, especially if Porzingis misses the game, would be devastating for Magic, and the waves of uncertainty are already moving through the organization. Vogel was brought in to fix the D, and if he survives the cut, it’ll definitely mean breaking ties with some players, most of whom have glaring defensive issues – starting with Nik Vucevic and Elfrid Payton.
It doesn’t help to have Ross and Isaac sidelined either, as both are versatile and athletic enough to help on the defensive side. We’ll see if there’ll be any rotation changes tonight against the Knicks. The game in Charlotte will be their third in four nights, so their legs and lungs will be tested.
Place: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
Date/Time: Monday, December 4th, 2017. 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSE-C, Fox Sports Florida
Minus Kemba Walker, the Hornets lose again on the road
After a failure in the cold north, the Hornets tried to win one in the very south, but nothing seems to be working for this team. Without Kemba Walker for the second time in a row, Charlotte lost 100-105 to the Miami Heat in an uncharacteristically turnover-filled game.
The Hornets got off to a great start, leading 16-1 in this game as the Heat missed their first 12 shots. Howard started off strong, scoring 6 in this stretch, adamant to make the best of Whiteside’s absence. However, the positive start was quickly undone by a flurry of miscues. The Hornets committed 15 first-half turnovers and the Heat managed to climb back into the game and take the lead. The Hornets did well to protect the ball in Toronto without Walker, but this time, they gave away 22 possessions – franchise-record-tying nine by Howard (in 17 minutes), who actually sat out most of the second half due to five fouls. Marvin Williams led Hornets with 16 points, and six more players scored in low double figures, as the team shot fairly well, 48.1 percent from the field. They couldn’t get three to fall (5-of-20), the usual demise. The Hornets dropped ten of eleven road games, but it was only decided in the clutch when Miami took advantage of Hornets’ lack of leadership and went on a 9-0 run to put the game beyond the reach.
Walker missed his second consecutive game with a sore left shoulder – it’s a minor injury and he should be ready to go against the Magic. Hornets wing Jeremy Lamb was able to play and scored 12 points, after being listed as questionable. Charlotte is entering a very important stretch of 8 of ten games played at their own place.
Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets Game Trends & Prediction
The Orlando Magic wouldn’t come close to covering as a large home dog in their last game, falling to 10-12-1 for the season. They had mild success on their road games, going 6-6-1 ATS. The best trend forming is the overs. The Magic don’t care much about playing defense and are capable of scoring on any given night, so it’s not too big of a surprise to see them connect six over games in a row. They are 13-10 against the over/under, and 8-5 on the road.
It’s a home-sweet-home for the Charlotte Hornets. Out of 9-11-1 overall ATS record, the Hornets have gone 7-3 in Spectrum Center. There are no significant trends looking at the recent games or venue of games when it comes to the total points market. The Hornets have gone 10-11 against the totals, 5-5 at home.
Admi-Rank: The Charlotte Hornets lost four in a row but there’s no reason to panic. They played three games on the road, and the rivals were mighty. It certainly can’t be seen as positive either. The Magic found some shooting touch since returning to Florida, and winning one of two against the Thunder and Warriors is definitely better than losing the previous nine.
Assuming that Kemba Walker returns to the lineup, I see the Hornets as a better overall side. They are a much different side at home and can be granted a pass for not having the full roster for most of the first quarter of the season with Batum’s injury, Kidd-Gilchrist’s personal leaves, and now Walker’s soreness. The Magic can surprise them if they hit the three-ball like they did in the previous two games, as Hornets don’t have enough ammo to strike back, especially not on the most valued shot in basketball. Again, Walker would help them in this department as well. They would primarily be better by having to play Carter-Williams fewer minutes, of course.
The books are fully expecting him to play, no doubt about it, as the spread has been set to -7.5 points on the home side. The books are also accounting for the Magic back-to-back and the fact that the Hornets tend to play much better at home. It’s exactly the same number I would set, so there’s no chance of having any side here. Still, there’s money to be made on the total points. The lines has been set at 221.5 points, way over the actual expectations. I’m not buying Vogel’s call for better defense, as the Magic simply don’t have the personnel, but it’s still a massive overreach. Stay below this number to profit.
My Pick: (no wager on the spread)
Total: Under 221.5 points (-110)
