The Co-Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State Mountaineers travel into Mobile, Alabama to get down with the MAC Conference champion Toledo Rockets in the 2017 Dollar General Bowl. The game is set to begin on Saturday, December 23rd at 7 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN for your viewing pleasure. Coming into this game, the Rockets are a -7.5 point favorite to beat the Mountaineers. The contest’s over/under currently sits at 61.5 points.
The Appalachian State Mountaineers enter this game fresh off a three-game winning streak and a shared Sun Belt Conference championship. Overall, the Mountaineers did very well inside their division but only captured one non-conference victory in 2017. Considering their losses to Georgia and Wake Forest their 8-4 record looks pretty good. Furthermore, Appalachian State’s four losses came by a combined 32 points.
The Toledo Rockets were clearly the best team in the MAC conference from the word go. Toledo sported a balanced offense this season in which their passing game and their running game both sit inside the top 30 of the FBS standings. Last time out, the Rockets claimed a MAC crown when they defeated the Akron Zips, 45-28. The game at Ford Field wasn’t as close as it appears as Toledo allowed 21 fourth-quarter points when they let their foot off the gas after the game was in hand.
This contest will be one of three bowl games that feature two conference champions. It also is one of two post-season contests that will have the same two teams pitted against one another for their final game. Last year, the Mountaineers were victorious over the Rockets 31-28 in the 2016 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl.
Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-4)
The Mountaineers are led by senior quarterback Taylor Lamb. The dual-threat signal caller’s experience paid off as he completed 67 percent of his passes for just over 2,600 yards. Lamb also was smart with the football, recording 26 touchdowns and only six picks on the year. The shifty player also gashed opposing teams with his feet, scrambling for 539 yards and five more touchdowns.
When the Mountaineers looked to run the football, they turned to their talented tailback Jalin Moore. Moore answered the call, toting the rock 161 times for 912 yards and nine trips to pay-dirt. Along with Taylor Lamb, the Mountaineers held the 28th spot in the country in rushing yards per game (214).
Appalachian State did their best to keep their offense as balanced as possible in 2017. Two wideouts contributed about equally to make that happen. Together, the duo snatched up 91 passes for 1,222 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ike Lewis led the corps with 47 catches for 666 yards and eight end zone appearances. Three other pass catchers recorded at least 20 catches in support of the starting wide receivers.
On defense, the Mountaineers took full advantage of their opponents mistakes. In fact, they forced 22 turnovers which put them at +8 on the year. Both the front seven and the back half played fairly well, finishing 45th and 43rd in the country by regular seasons end. Overall, the unit only surrendered 21 points a game and 359 yards a contest.
Toledo Rockets (11-2)
Once again, the Toledo rockets sported one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. Even with a key injury to one of their best wide receivers, quarterback Logan Woodside barely missed a beat. In 13 games, the senior captain tossed the ball for 3,758 yards on 248 completions. He also tossed 28 end zone throws and only had five interceptions to his credit.
Although Logan Woodside’s numbers were down a bit from his 2016 campaign, a lot of it had to do with the success the Rockets found while running the football. Terry Swanson and Shakif Seymour were one of the best duos in college ball. Together, the two tailbacks combined for just over 2,000 yards on 344 carries and a gaudy 26 scores. Swanson was an absolute beast for Toledo, rushing for a team-high 1,319 yards and 14 trips to the promised land. Teammate Art Thompkins was third on the depth chart but wasn’t a slouch either. Thompkins rushed for just over 600 yards and another two touchdowns.
When leading receiver Cody Thompson went down with a season-ending injury in the fifth week of the season, somebody had to step up for this offense. That wide receiver was Diontae Johnson. The sophomore was spectacular for Logan Woodside, reeling in 72 passes for 1,257 yards and 15 combined touchdowns. Teammate Jon’Vea Johnson did well on the other side, catching another 41 passes for 645 yards and five scores. Thompson suffered a broken leg against the Eagles and will not be available for the Dollar General Bowl.
One of the huge improvements for the Toledo Rockets was the play on the defensive side of the football. Although they weren’t great, the front seven and the secondary showed a lot of improvement from last year’s unit. The back half finished the season ranked 49th in the country, allowing 213 yards a contest. Overall, the defense relented to 25 points a game, which was good for 56th in the country.
Prediction
After looking into this match-up, one thing became clear to me was the 63 point over/under might be a little too much. I get that the Toledo offense is high-powered but the Mountaineers are playing their best defense of the season right now. Also, the Rockets are much improved on that side of the ball so points might not be that easy to come by. I’m suggesting to the readers that the under 63 is the play in this re-match.
As for the total, well Toledo and the eight points seems a bit much. Both of these clubs played a close bowl game against each other last year and I expect the same again. The two senior quarterbacks should find ways to move the ball when necessary and keep the game tight. I’m going with my gut on this one and taking the underdog Mountaineers with the eight points. @EriktheHun
Tp lay some cash down on this game, head over to BetDSI Sportsbook to get your action in.
Trends
The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Under is 4-1 in the Mountaineers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Rockets last 5 neutral site games.
