The AAC conference and the Mountain West Conference will get down when the Houston Cougars meet up with the Fresno State Bulldogs in the 2017 Hawaii Bowl. The game is slated to start on Sunday, December 24th at 8:30 p.m. EST and can be watched on ESPN. Coming into this showdown, the Cougars are a slight -2.5 point favorite and the contest’s total sits at 49 points.
The Houston Cougars are coming off a victory over the Navy Midshipmen. As a result, Houston went 7-4 on the season and finished 5-3 in conference play. The Cougars gained some momentum in the last month of the season going 3-1 down that stretch. The Hawaii Bowl will be Houston’s fifth-straight bowl appearance in which they are 3-2 in those match-ups.
Like the Cougars, the Fresno State Bulldogs were a team to be reckoned with in the last half of the season. The Bulldogs were victorious in four of their last five games but fell to Boise State 17-14 in the Mountain West Championship. Even with the loss to the Broncos, their 9-4 season has to be considered a great success. Last year, Fresno State went 1-11 and found themselves in the cellar of the Mountain West Division.
Houston Cougars (7-4)
The offense for the Houston Cougars has not been as explosive as in the past. Still, it has been decent and they put up 380 yards in their win over the Middies. Leading their attack was the backup quarterback, D’Eriq King. King completed 21 of his 27 passes for 277 yards with a touchdown. Although he wasn’t named the starter to begin the season, he did find himself in that roll in the Cougars’ last five games. In those contests, the dual-threat athlete hit almost 70 percent of his passes for 991 yards with six touchdowns and a pick. He also ran for another 341 yards and eight more trips to the back of the end zone.
Running the football was a bit of a challenge for the Houston Cougars in 2017. Tailback DukeCatalon was their go-to guy, carrying the ball 138 times for 621 yards and eight touchdowns. Two other runners helped Catalon out, recording just over 700 yards and another seven touchdowns. Along with D’Eriq King, Houston’s rushing attack got stronger as the year progressed.
Two wideouts helped the offense move the ball down the field on Saturdays for Houston. Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner combined for 140 catches for 1,732 yards and seven scores. Dunbar led the team with 882 receiving yards but finished second in receptions. On the other side, Bonner led the squad with 73 receptions and four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he is listed as questionable with an arm injury for the Hawaii Bowl. If he can’t go, it will be a huge loss to the Cougar’s offense.
The Houston defense features one of the best defensive lines in the country. They are led by defensive lineman Ed Oliver who had 5.5 sacks on the year and was third on the team with 69 tackles. The secondary is where this unit struggled, allowing teams to throw for 268 yards a contest (119th). In all, they sit 39th in the country, giving up 23 points a match.
Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4)
The Fresno State offense will get a stern test against the Cougars in the Hawaii Bowl. Last time out, quarterback Marcus McMaryion struggled against the Broncos. He hit just 16 of his 34 passes for only 172 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Even still, he has had a solid year overall hitting 61 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards with 14 scores and just four picks.
Moving the football on the ground was truly a team effort for Fresno State. Three running backs teamed up for 264 carries for almost 1,600 yards and 18 trips to glory. Jordan Mims led the team with 142 tries for 604 yards. His partner in crime Josh Hokit was first with seven scores to go with his 519 yards on the ground.
When throwing the football, quarterback Marcus McMariyon looked to two receivers to push the ball down the gridiron. Combined, the two pass catchers hauled in 122 balls for 1,461 yards and nine end zone grabs. Keesean Johnson was clearly the club’s main target, catching 69 passes for 918 yards and eight scores. All three of those figures were team-highs.
The strength of the Fresno State Bulldogs is their defense. That fact is evident by the numbers they put up in 2017. The secondary was stingy, giving way to 202 yards a game (37th). The front seven was outstanding, holding opposing running games to only 116 yards on the ground (14th). Overall, the squad was ranked just inside the top 10 in points allowed (9th) at 17 a contest. Linebacker Jeffrey Allison was incredible for the Bulldogs this season, leading the team with 113 tackles. Also, Fresno State committed just 11 turnovers on the season and finished the year with a turnover margin of plus eight.
Prediction
Las Vegas set the Houston Cougars as the slight favorite (-1.5) in what they consider to be a toss-up game. The betting public sees it the same way, pushing Houston to -2.5 as we speak. They also have the over/under for this game at 50, which is up from 47 when it came out this Monday. This is where I certainly would consider making my play.
The Fresno State defense is one of the better Ds in the nation. Houston also has a great front seven and neither of these offenses is spectacular. I can see both schools struggling to move the football with any type of consistency in this version of the Hawaii Bowl. Take the under 50 and root for the defenses to control this affair throughout.
As for the spread, I personally see a lot of value in taking the Bulldogs at plus money in this one. They definitely are the team that is trending in the right direction, turning the program around in just one campaign. One also has to consider this. Fresno State has four losses but two of those were to Alabama and Washington on the road. Not to mention a defeat to the Boise State Broncos on the blue turf in the Mountain West title game. Go for the plus money in this closely contested affair and lay your cash on the Bulldogs at +140 to win the 2016 Hawaii Bowl.
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Trends
The Cougars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
The Under is 14-3 in the Cougars last 17 games overall.
The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
The Under is 13-3 in the Bulldogs last 16 games overall.
