It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Atlanta Hawks (6-23) welcome the Miami Heat (15-14) to Philips Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 18, 2017.
Miami is a 2.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 202.5 points.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Free Prediction
The Heat will be hoping for similar success after beating the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game, 90-85. Miami’s 0.195 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Los Angeles, who had a mark of 0.087. The Heat’s mark was above their season average of 0.173, while the Clippers’ was below their season average of 0.215. With 28 points on 10-for-16 shooting, Josh Richardson was the game’s leading scorer.
In the Hawks’ last game, they lost a close one to the Memphis Grizzlies, 96-94. Memphis’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Atlanta. The Grizzlies had a rate of 26.3 (above their season average of 19.1), while the Hawks posted a mark of 17.5 (below the 23.0 mark opponents have averaged against Memphis this season). With 18 points, 11 assists and five rebounds, Atlanta’s Dennis Schroder had a good performance.
It could be a tough game for Atlanta on the offensive glass. The Hawks rank 21st in offensive rebounding percentage (21.1 percent), while Miami ranks ninth in defensive rebounding percentage (78.3 percent). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Heat. They rank 25th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 15.5 percent), while the Hawks force the second-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.3 percent).
Miami heads into the game with records of 15-14 straight up (SU) and 11-16-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Heat are involved, as 18 of their 29 games have gone under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is 6-23 SU and 15-13-1 ATS. Of the Hawks’ 29 games, 15 have finished over the total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Richardson scored a game-high 21 points in the first game, in which the Heat defeated the Hawks 104-93, resulting in a push. The game finished with a total of 197 points, which was 7.5 points below the projected point total of 204.5 points. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.2 vs. 16.2) and had a better turnover percentage (17.0 vs. 19.2).
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 9-7 ATS on the road with 11 unders, 4 overs and 1 push.
At home, Atlanta is 6-7 ATS with 8 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.
Atlanta is 1-3 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 11-3.
When scoring over 100 points, the Hawks are 6-13 and the Heat are 11-5.
Miami ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (24.9) while Atlanta ranks 29th (32.3).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (19.9) while the Hawks rank 29th (26.2).
Miami ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while Atlanta ranks 25th (3.9).
The Hawks rank fifth in steals per game (8.8) while the Heat rank 17th (7.6).
Miami ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (8.8) while Atlanta ranks 17th (11.1).
The Hawks rank 17th in second chance points per game (11.9) while the Heat rank 28th (9.1).
Atlanta ranks 11th in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while Miami ranks 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
The Hawks rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (40.4) while the Heat rank 25th (39.8).
Neither of these teams are great at rebounding the ball. Miami is 25th in the league with 40.9 rebounds per game while Atlanta is 27th with 39.7 rebounds per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 5 unders.
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 8.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has lost by an average of 1.9 points.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 104.6 points per game (1.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
