As the college football bowl season moves onward, we will see the (16) Stanford Cardinal and the (13) TCU Horned Frogs play in the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl. The battle between the Pac-12 and the Big-12 teams will begin on Thursday, December 28th at 9 p.m. EST. The intriguing match-up can also be seen on ESPN for some late evening bowl game enjoyment. Las Vegas has the Horned Frogs as a slight -2.5 point favorite and the contest’s over/under penciled in at 49.
The Stanford Cardinal are flying into the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl after losing in the Pac-12 title game against the USC Trojans, 31-28. As a result of that defeat, the Cardinal fell to 9-4 on the season and 7-3 in conference play. Many didn’t think Stanford would vie for the Pacific crown in 2017 but once again Stanford proved them wrong. Unfortunately, their defense wasn’t quite as good as it usually is and it cost Stanford down the stretch.
If all the cards fell right and the TCU Horned Frogs took care of business, they also could have made the final four. Instead, the Horned Frogs got pummeled by Oklahoma 17-41 in the Big-12 Championship and will now settle for the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl. Overall, TCU sported a solid 10-3 record and also went 7-3 in conference action. This will be TCU’s second appearance in the Alamodome in three years. In 2014, the Horned Frogs outscored the Oregon Ducks 47-41 to win this same postseason event.
(16) stanford Cardinal (9-4)
Against USC to finish off their regular season, the Stanford Cardinal struggled to get anything going until it was too late. The Cardinal had just 343 yards of total offense, including only 192 yards via their air attack. Quarterback K.J. Costello only completed 10 passes for 192 yards. He did make the most of the 10 completions by hitting two of them for scores. Altogether, Costello has thrown for 1,386 yards with 11 touchdowns and two picks.
The real star for the Stanford offense is Heisman runner-up Bryce Love. The outstanding tailback had a spectacular season and at times carried the Cardinal offense all by himself. He produced 125 yards and a score against the Trojans to close out his 2017 regular season campaign. His numbers speak for themselves, toting the rock 237 times for 1,973 yards and 17 trips to pay-dirt.
Two receivers did the bulk of the work at the Stanford wideout position. JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Trenton Irwin combined for 83 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. The Cardinal also like to get the pigskin to their two talented tight ends. Together, they combined for 43 catches and another 850 yards with eight more scores.
Defensively, Stanford failed to get on track in 2017. Usually, the Cardinal have one of the nation’s best outfits but this year that wasn’t so. Overall, they ranked 72nd in the country, allowing just under 400 yards a game. Even with the large yardage output, they did shore things up in the red zone. Opposing programs could only muster 21 points a contest on the Cardinal (30th).
(13) TCU Horned Frogs (10-3)
Two of the TCU Horned Frogs losses came at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners. Both of those losses were blowouts and the latter cost them the Big-12 Championship and a chance to play for a national title. Nevertheless, the Horned Frogs had another solid season and will be a tough match-up for the Stanford Cardinal.
The Horned Frogs have been decent on offense this year as they come in ranked 52nd in the nation in total offense (414.0 ypg). Quarterback Kenny hill started out red hot but then colled off down the stretch. In all, Hill did pretty well under center, completing 67 percent of his throws for 2,838 yards. He also found receivers in the end zone 21 times and only served up six picks on the year.
Two running backs split carries to help TCU keep opposing defenses honest. In fact, the Horned Frogs prefer to pound the rock instead of trying for big plays down the field. Tailbacks Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks led the way with 261 carries for 1,356 yards and 12 scores.
Sewo Olonilua was a red zone threat, recording a team-high seven trips to the back of the end zone. Quarterback Kenny hill also used his feet to pick up 266 yards and four more touchdowns. Unfortunately, Darius Anderson will not play in the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl because of a season-ending injury.
Four different receivers were called upon on a consistent basis when the Horned Frogs tossed the ball around the field. The foursome amassed 137 catches for just over 1,700 yards and 14 touchdowns. John Diarse led the unit with 543 yards receiving and Jalen Reagor led TCU with seven end zone appearances.
The TCU Horned Frogs defense did what was asked of them in 2017. They were one of the best in the nation at keeping teams off the scoreboard. The Horned Frogs only allowed 17 points a game, which was 11th best in the country. The front seven was also a force, holding runners to only 99 yards a game (4th). The flip side of that coin is the secondary struggled, surrendering 228 yards a contest (73rd).
Prediction
This has the makings to be a very interesting showdown in San Antonio. I can completely understand why line setters have this game so close. As of now, the Horned Frogs are -2.5 point favorites and I believe that is a fair line. Stanford wants to run the ball down peoples throats and TCU is fourth-best at stopping just that. I realize the Horned Frogs secondary has struggled at times but that was to Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Who wouldn’t? Furthermore, Stanford is nowhere capable of lighting up the scoreboard with their air attack.
When you combine the two things that I’ve mentioned above, I believe the right play here is to take the Horned Frogs in a close one. I also like the fact that a field goal covers this spread. The total is pretty low at 49 points but this could easily come in under. Remember, leading TCU rusher Darius Anderson won’t be suiting up for this game. With that being said, both teams could find ways to score in the mid 20’s here and that is enough for me to stay away from it. Just take the Horned Frogs to win this with the better defense and enjoy a hard-hitting affair in the 2017 Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday. @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
The Under is 7-2 in the Cardinal last 9 games overall.
The Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
The Under is 8-2-1 in the Horned Frogs last 11 Bowl games.
