Two of the least-penalized clubs in the league, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Arizona Coyotes meet at Gila River Arena in a cross-continent matchup. The opening face-off takes place at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 28, and fans at home will be able to catch it live on Fox Sports Arizona.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Arizona Coyotes Odds
Toronto (-170) is currently favored over Arizona (+150), and the oddsmakers have put the Over/Under (O/U) at 6 goals (-120 to bet the under, +100 for the over).
Toronto is 22-15 straight up (SU) and has earned 2.8 units for moneyline bettors this year. 18 of its contests have gone over the total, while 16 have gone under and just three have pushed. The Leafs are 11-10 SU on the road in 2017-18.
Toronto has converted on 22.2 percent of its power play chances this season, a mark that places them in the top-10 among NHL teams. Additionally, its penalty kill is ranked 10th overall, and the team’s successfully killed off 82.5 percent of its penalties.
For the team as a whole, Toronto has been called for penalties just 3.6 times per game during the 2017-18 season, and 3.0 per game over its last five road outings. The team’s been forced to stave off opponent power plays just 6.7 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Boasting a .924 save percentage and 31.6 saves per game, Frederik Andersen (19-11-1) has been the top option in goal for Toronto this season. If head coach Mike Babcock chooses to rest him, however, the team could turn to Curtis McElhinney (3-4), who has a .916 save percentage and 2.78 goals against average this year.
Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner will both lead the way for the visiting Maple Leafs. Matthews has 28 points on 14 goals and 14 assists, and has recorded two or more points eight times. Marner has four goals and 22 assists to his creditand has registered at least one point in 14 games.
Arizona is 9-30 straight up (SU) and has lost 20.1 units for moneyline bettors thus far. 21 of its outings have gone under the total, while 16 have gone over and just one has pushed. The team is 4-13 SU at home this year.
Arizona has converted on just 14.6 percent of its power play chances this year, a mark that’s ranked 29th in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 15th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 81.0 percent of all penalties.
Arizona players have been sent to the penalty box only 3.3 times per game in total this season, and 4.8 per game over their last five home outings. The team’s been forced to stave off opponent power plays 15.6 minutes per contest over their last five home games.
Antti Raanta has stopped 25.2 shots per game as the top netminder in goal for Arizona. Raanta has five wins, 14 losses, and two overtime losses to his credit and has maintained a mediocre 2.80 goals against average and a .916 save percentage this season.
Clayton Keller (13 goals, 17 assists) will pace the offensive counter for the Coyotes.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Arizona Coyotes Free Picks
Predictions: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in three of Arizona’s last five outings.
Power-play opportunities may prove to be even more critical than usual in this matchup. The Maple Leafs are 7-5 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 15-13 in games where they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes. The Coyotes are 5-15 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 7-22 in games where they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
Toronto is 2-1 in games decided by a shootout this season while Arizona is 1-1 in shootouts.
Arizona has forced 4.4 takeaways per game over its last five home games, a drop-off from its season average of 5.2 takeaways per game (ranked 31st in the league).
Toronto is ranked 11th in the NHL with 8.3 takeaways per game. That figure has trended down, however, as it’s created 6.9 takeaways over its last 10 games and 6.2 takeaways over its last five.
Toronto may hold an advantage if this one comes down to the wire. The team’s an impressive 11-3 in one-goal games, while Arizona is 6-11 in such games.
