A defensive struggle should be expected when the South Florida Bulls (7-6) and the Houston Cougars (10-2) face off at USF Sun Dome. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 28, 2017, and will air on ESPNews.
Houston opened as a 15-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 135.5 points.
Houston Cougars vs. South Florida Bulls Free Prediction
In the Cougars’ last matchup, they beat the Providence Friars, 70-59. The Cougars held the Friars to an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.5 (below their season average of 31.7) and had a turnover percentage of 13.0 (better than their season average of 17.2). Houston received a boost from Rob Gray Jr., who was the team’s high scorer with 24 points on 7-for-16 shooting.
The Bulls edged the Charlotte 49ers in their last matchup, 78-76. South Florida’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Charlotte. The Bulls had a rate of 35.3 (above their season average of 30.2), while the 49ers posted a mark of 23.7 (below the 29.8 mark opponents have averaged against South Florida this season). Tulio Da Silva was the top scorer from either team with 23 points on 10-for-15 shooting.
South Florida might struggle to find the bottom of the net as they square off against one of the nation’s best defenses. Houston ranks 62nd in defensive efficiency while the Bulls rank 274th in offensive efficiency.
Houston holds records of 10-2 straight up (SU) and 5-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Cougars are involved, as five of their 8 games have ended under the total.
Meanwhile, South Florida owns records of 7-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS. Games featuring the Bulls also have a tendency to finish under the total (66.7 percent).
After the Cougars won the only contest against the Bulls last season, 70-56, these teams will meet for the first time this year. Houston’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over South Florida. The Cougars had a rate of 0.518 while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.373.
Houston Cougars at South Florida Bulls Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Houston, ATS Winner – Houston, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Houston is 3-3 ATS on the road with 4 unders and 2 overs.
South Florida is 2-4 ATS at home with 5 unders and 1 over.
Houston ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (10.7) while South Florida ranks 125th (13.4).
The Cougars rank 32nd in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while the Bulls rank 122nd (3.8).
Houston ranks 40th in rebounds per game (39.4) while South Florida ranks 120th (36.5).
The Cougars rank 180th in three pointers attempted per game (20.8) while the Bulls rank 246th (17.5).
Houston ranks 107th in steals per game (6.5) while South Florida ranks 115th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-1 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
South Florida is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Cougars’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.8, down from 14.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 69.0 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 68.8 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
