The Miami Heat (18-16) take on the Brooklyn Nets (12-22) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on YES Network at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 29, 2017.
Miami opened as a 7-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points.
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The Nets are hoping for a better outcome after their 128-113 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing. New Orleans’ 9.2 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Brooklyn, who had a mark of 13.5. The Pelicans’ mark was better than their season average of 14.4. Caris LeVert led Brooklyn in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
The last time the Heat played, they had no trouble getting past the Orlando Magic, 107-89. The Heat, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.8, had an absurd mark of 33.3, while the Magic had a turnover percentage of 15.8 (above the 12.8 mark opponents have averaged against Miami this season). With 15 points and 12 rebounds, Kelly Olynyk had a good game for Miami.
Miami appears to have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.510), while Brooklyn is 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.510). Conflicting tempos will be on display in this meeting. The up-and-down Nets rank fourth in possessions per game, while the more methodical Heat rank 27th.
Brooklyn has a respectable record against the spread (19-15), despite being 12-22 straight up (SU). Nets games have finished under the total 52.9 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Miami is 18-16 SU and 14-18-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 34 games, 21 have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a couple of players trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Nets it’s been Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (15.0 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists) and LeVert (15.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals), while Josh Richardson (21.8 points, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks) and Tyler Johnson (12.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals) have been great for the Heat.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Hollis-Jefferson put up 18 points and eight rebounds in the first game, in which the Nets lost 101-89, unable to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 190 points, which was 22.5 points below the projected point total of 212.5 points. The Heat had a much better turnover percentage (4.9 vs. 11.8) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.511 vs. 0.451).
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Brooklyn is 11-8 ATS on the road with 11 unders and 8 overs.
At home, Miami is 4-10-2 ATS with 9 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 13-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Brooklyn is 7-0.
The Nets are 10-16 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 13-6.
Miami ranks eighth in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while Brooklyn ranks 28th (45.8).
The Heat rank eighth in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while the Nets rank 27th (5.5).
Brooklyn ranks 14th in second chance points per game (12.3) while Miami ranks 29th (9.5).
The Nets rank 13th in points in the paint per game (43.9) while the Heat rank 27th (39.9).
Brooklyn ranks 14th in fast break points per game (10.9) while Miami ranks 27th (7.4).
The Heat rank 20th in steals per game (7.4) while the Nets rank 29th (6.5).
Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.3) while Brooklyn ranks 12th (21.9).
Both of these teams like to shoot the long ball. The Nets are second in the NBA with 34.5 three pointers per game while the Heat are fifth with 31.6 threes per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Brooklyn is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 101.6 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.6 points per game (2.0 below their season average).
