It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the New Orleans Pelicans (18-16) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (11-25) to Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 29, 2017, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 211 points with New Orleans opening as a 6-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Prediction
The Mavericks come in on a high note after defeating the Indiana Pacers in their last outing, 98-94. The Mavericks forced 16 turnovers, while the Pacers had a free throw rate of 0.101 (below their season average of 0.180). Dallas rallied around Dirk Nowitzki, who led the team in scoring with 15 points on 7-for-10 shooting.
In the Pelicans’ last game, they were victorious over the Brooklyn Nets, 128-113. The Pelicans had a great turnover percentage of 9.2 (better than their season average of 14.4), while the Nets had a free throw rate of 0.133 (below their season average of 0.213). Anthony Davis was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
Conflicting styles will be on display in this battle. New Orleans has preferred a fast-breaking style of play (fifth in possessions per game), while Dallas has been slower-paced (26th in possessions per game). The Mavericks should be expected to protect the ball well. They rank 2nd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent), while the Pelicans force the eighth-fewest turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 13.8 percent).
Dallas holds records of 11-25 straight up (SU) and 17-19 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Mavericks tend to go under the total (55.6 percent).
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 18-16 SU and 20-14 ATS. Unlike Dallas, games involving the Pelicans tend to finish over the projected point total (61.8 percent).
Nowitzki has averaged 14.6 points and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Dallas.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Davis scored a game-high 30 points in the first matchup, in which the Pelicans defeated the Mavericks 99-94, covering as 4.5-point favorites. He also had 13 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 193 points, which was 18 points below the projected point total of 211 points. The Pelicans had a better turnover percentage (10.7 vs. 13.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.225 vs. 0.193).
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 8-9 ATS on the road with 10 unders and 7 overs.
New Orleans is 9-7 ATS at home with 11 overs and 5 unders.
New Orleans is 6-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 10-8.
The Mavericks are 6-10 when they score more than 100 points, while the Pelicans are 16-11.
New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (50.2) while Dallas ranks last (38.3).
The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while the Pelicans rank 26th (18.8).
Dallas averages 31.6 three pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (31.4).
The Mavericks rank third in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while the Pelicans rank 24th (13.5).
New Orleans averages 12.8 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (14.4).
The Pelicans rank second in assists per game (26.8) while the Mavericks rank 19th (21.9).
New Orleans ranks 12th in blocks per game (4.8) while Dallas ranks 26th (3.8).
The Mavericks rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while the Pelicans rank 25th (8.9).
New Orleans ranks 17th in rebounds per game (43.0) while Dallas ranks 25th (40.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Mavericks have outscored opponents by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Dallas has been defeated by an average of 2.8 points.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 113.0 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (3.5 below their season average).
