It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Orlando Magic (12-24) welcome the Miami Heat (18-17) to Amway Center. The game will air on Fox SportsNet Florida at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 30, 2017.
Miami opened as a 1-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 205 points.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic ATS Prediction
In the Heat’s last matchup, they were blown out by the Brooklyn Nets, 111-87. Brooklyn launched 26 three pointers, making 11 of them (42.3 percent), while Miami was just 3-26 (11.5 percent). Hassan Whiteside had a solid outing for Miami, contributing 17 points and eight rebounds.
The Magic defeated the Detroit Pistons in their last matchup, 102-89. The Magic knocked down 17 of their 17 free throws (100.0 percent) and held the Pistons to an effective field goal percentage of 0.449 (below their season average of 0.513). Elfrid Payton was Orlando’s high scorer with 19 points on 6-for-12 shooting.
It will be a matchup of conflicting styles as the fast-paced Magic (ranked seventh in the league in possessions per game) will look to push the more half-court-oriented Heat (24th in possessions per game).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 18-17 straight up (SU) and 14-18-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Heat are involved, as 61.8 percent of their games have gone under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Orlando is 12-24 SU and 13-22-1 ATS. Magic games also have a slight tendency to finish under the total (52.8 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Josh Richardson (20.2 points, 4.2 assists and 1.4 steals) has been great for the Heat while Payton (19.2 points, 7.4 assists and 1.2 steals) has made great contributions to the Magic.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Heat won the most recent matchup 107-89, covering as 9-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 196 points, which was 9.5 points below the projected point total of 205.5 points. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 21.3) and had a better turnover percentage (13.2 vs. 15.8). Payton had a standout performance in the game, putting up 19 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 10-8 ATS with 12 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
Orlando is 5-11 ATS at home with 10 unders and 6 overs.
Miami is 13-3 when they allow below 100 points, while Orlando is 6-2.
The Magic are 12-12 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 13-6.
Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.4) while Orlando ranks 28th (24.9).
The Heat rank third in fast break points allowed per game (8.9) while the Magic rank 22nd (12.4).
Miami ranks 12th in rebounds allowed per game (42.5) while Orlando ranks last (46.6).
The Magic rank 12th in points in the paint per game (45.1) while the Heat rank 26th (40.1).
Miami ranks ninth in blocks per game (4.9) while Orlando ranks 18th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
The Heat rank second in three pointers allowed per game (25.2) while the Magic rank ninth (26.9).
Miami averages 7.5 steals per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. Orlando ranks 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Heat average 15.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 19th in the league. The Magic rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
Orlando is 26th in the NBA with 10.1 second chance points per game while Miami is 29th with 9.4 second chance points per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Orlando is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.6, down from 2.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 97.0 points per game (7.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (0.4 below their season average).
