The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (11-2) welcome the Boise State Broncos (11-2, 1-0 MWC) in a matchup that pits sensational offense against superb defense. The game is scheduled to begin at 11 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 30, 2017.
UNLV is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 155 points.
Boise State Broncos at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Prediction
The last time the Broncos played, they thoroughly outplayed the Colorado State Rams, 93-71. The Broncos, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.9, had a ridiculous mark of 37.5 and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.635 (above their season average of 0.550). Boise State received a boost from Chandler Hutchison, who was the game’s leading scorer with 24 points on 9-for-15 shooting.
The Runnin’ Rebels barely escaped the Northern Colorado Bears in their last game, 94-91. Getting to the charity stripe was one of UNLV’s largest strengths. They had 32 free throw attempts, while Northern Colorado had just 15. Shakur Juiston was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points on 13-for-18 shooting.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. UNLV currently ranks 30th in offensive efficiency and Boise State is 18th in defensive efficiency. Also, the Broncos rank 269th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.210), while the Runnin’ Rebels rank 26th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.172).
Boise State comes into the game with records of 11-2 straight up (SU) and 7-5 against the spread (ATS). Broncos games have typically finished under the projected point total (58.3 percent).
Meanwhile, UNLV is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS. Contrary to Boise State, Runnin’ Rebels games have a tendency to go over the total (83.3 percent).
Hutchison has averaged 21.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Boise State.
After the Broncos won the sole game against the Runnin’ Rebels last season, 77-59, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Boise State had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.547 vs. 0.320). UNLV, on the other hand, had a much better free throw rate (0.281 vs. 0.109).
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – UNLV, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Boise State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
At home, UNLV is 6-3 ATS with 8 overs and 0 unders.
Boise State ranks 17th in three pointers attempted per game (28.2) while UNLV ranks 273rd (15.5).
The Broncos rank 44th in rebounds allowed per game (31.9) while the Runnin’ Rebels rank 165th (36.0).
UNLV ranks 22nd in assists per game (17.8) while Boise State ranks 122nd (14.2).
The Runnin’ Rebels rank 53rd in blocks per game (4.5) while the Broncos rank 99th in blocks allowed per game (3.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Boise State is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
UNLV is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Broncos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.0, down from 13.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Runnin’ Rebels have scored an average of 90.2 points per game (1.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 75.6 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
