The Minnesota Timberwolves (24-15) travel to Boston to take on the Celtics (31-10) in a matchup that pits great offense against superb defense. The game begins at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points with Boston opening as a 4-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics ATS Prediction
The Timberwolves are hoping for a better outcome after their 98-97 loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their last matchup. Brooklyn’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Minnesota. The Nets had a rate of 0.611 (above their season average of 0.509), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 0.456 (below their season average of 0.524). Jimmy Butler was the top scorer from either team with 30 points on 7-for-17 shooting.
In the Celtics’ last matchup, they defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers, 102-88. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Cleveland. The Celtics had a rate of 0.511 (below their season average of 0.523), while the Cavaliers posted a mark of 0.393 (below their season average of 0.554). With 14 points and eight rebounds, Boston’s Jaylen Brown had a solid outing.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Boston ranks 23rd in possessions per game (97.3) and Minnesota is 21st (98.0). Furthermore, the fifth-ranked offense of the Timberwolves (offensive efficiency of 110.6) will clash against the top-ranked defense of the Celtics (defensive efficiency of 101.0).
Minnesota is 24-15 straight up (SU), but they have trouble covering the spread (17-20-2 against the spread (ATS)). Of the Timberwolves’ 39 games, 20 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Boston owns records of 31-10 SU and 25-14-2 ATS. Unlike Minnesota, just over half of Celtics games have finished under the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Butler (27.2 points, 6.8 assists and 2.2 steals) has been stellar for the Timberwolves while Terry Rozier (13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds) has contributed greatly to the Celtics.
After the Celtics won both meetings against the Timberwolves last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last contest, Boston won 117-104. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Minnesota. The Celtics had a rate of 0.627 while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 0.484.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Minnesota is 11-8-1 ATS on the road with 11 overs and 9 unders.
Boston is 12-8-2 ATS at home with 12 overs and 10 unders.
Minnesota is 11-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Boston is 22-1.
The Timberwolves are 22-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Celtics are 23-4.
Minnesota ranks second in points off turnovers per game (19.0) while Boston ranks 28th (14.2).
The Timberwolves rank fifth in points in the paint per game (47.7) while the Celtics rank 28th (39.4).
Minnesota ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Boston ranks 23rd (43.8).
The Celtics rank third in assists allowed per game (20.1) while the Timberwolves rank 24th (24.1).
Boston ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (31.2) while Minnesota ranks 27th (22.7).
The Celtics rank fifth in fast break points allowed per game (9.4) while the Timberwolves rank 24th (13.3).
Minnesota ranks third in steals per game (9.0) while Boston ranks 15th (7.6).
The Celtics rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while the Timberwolves rank 10th (4.5).
Boston ranks fifth in second chance points allowed per game (10.8) while Minnesota ranks 10th (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Boston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.2, up from 2.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 102.8 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.6 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
