The Minnesota Timberwolves (24-16) meet the New Orleans Pelicans (19-18) at Target Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 6, 2018.
Minnesota opened as a 2-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
In the Pelicans’ last game, they defeated the Utah Jazz, 108-98. New Orleans’ 18.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Utah, who had a mark of 14.6. The Pelicans’ mark was below their season average of 19.7, while the Jazz’s was below the 22.8 mark opponents have averaged against New Orleans this season. With 29 points on 11-for-26 shooting, Anthony Davis was the game’s high scorer.
The Timberwolves fell to the Boston Celtics in their last outing, 91-84. Boston won the rebounding battle. The Celtics had 17 offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Timberwolves had nine and 43, respectively. Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns put together a solid performance, leading both teams in scoring with 25 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
The prolific offense of Minnesota will square off against the bottom-tier defense of New Orleans. The Timberwolves rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while the Pelicans are 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Timberwolves should have the edge on that side of the ball. Ball protection could be troublesome for the Pelicans. They rank 26th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 15.2 percent), while the Timberwolves force the third-most turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.9 percent).
New Orleans comes into the game with records of 19-18 straight up (SU) and 21-16 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Pelicans have typically gone over the projected point total (59.5 percent).
Minnesota is 24-16 SU, but they have trouble covering the spread (17-20-2 ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 39 games with betting action, 20 have finished over the total.
The Timberwolves have emerged victorious in both games against the Pelicans this year, including a 120-102 blowout in their last matchup. Minnesota covered as a 6-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 222 points, which was 7.5 points above the projected point total of 214.5 points. The Timberwolves made 17 of their 19 free throws (89.5 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 19.0). Andrew Wiggins scored a game-high 28 points.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 12-7 ATS on the road with 10 overs and 9 unders.
Minnesota is 6-12-1 ATS at home with 9 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, New Orleans is 7-0 and Minnesota is 11-4.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Pelicans are 17-13 and the Timberwolves are 22-8.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.6) while New Orleans ranks 25th (8.8).
The Timberwolves average 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.4).
New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (26.6) while Minnesota ranks 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.1).
The Pelicans rank second in points in the paint per game (50.4) while the Timberwolves rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (45.5).
Minnesota averages 14.1 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.1).
The Pelicans rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (29.6) while the Timberwolves rank 28th (22.7).
New Orleans averages 13.0 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (13.1).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.4) while the Pelicans rank 16th (43.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Minnesota is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 0.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 99.6 points per game (8.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.4 points per game (10.0 below their season average).
