The Minnesota Timberwolves (26-16) welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (22-19) to Target Center as they look to lengthen their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Minnesota opened as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 209.5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Prediction
The Thunder are trying to rebound after their 117-106 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in their last matchup. Portland was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Trail Blazers made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent), while the Thunder were 19-26 (73.1 percent). Russell Westbrook was Oklahoma City’s high scorer with 22 points on 7-for-20 shooting.
In the Timberwolves’ last game, they won big over the Cleveland Cavaliers, 127-99. The Timberwolves had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 4.4 (better than their season average of 11.5) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.1 (above their season average of 24.6). With 19 points and 12 rebounds, Karl-Anthony Towns played well for Minnesota.
Ball protection could play a key role in this meeting. Minnesota commits the second-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.5 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Oklahoma City forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.8 percent). Additionally, the Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.1 percent), while the Timberwolves rank 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent).
Oklahoma City holds records of 22-19 straight up (SU) and 15-24-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Thunder’s 40 games with betting action, 23 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota owns records of 26-16 SU and 19-21-2 ATS. Unlike Oklahoma City, just over half of Timberwolves games have finished over the projected point total.
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 16.4 points, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Minnesota.
The Timberwolves lead the season series against the Thunder two games to one, but fell short the last time these two teams met, 111-107. Minnesota covered as a 5-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 218 points, which was 9.5 points above the projected point total of 208.5 points. Oklahoma City had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (39.4 vs. 17.1). Minnesota, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (15.8 vs. 16.9). Paul George scored a game-high 36 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Oklahoma City is 7-13 ATS on the road with 11 unders and 9 overs.
At home, Minnesota is 8-12-1 ATS with 10 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.
Minnesota is 13-4 when they allow under 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 14-5.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Timberwolves are 24-8 and the Thunder are 19-9.
Oklahoma City averages 14.4 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Minnesota ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (12.8).
The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while the Thunder rank 19th (8.0).
Oklahoma City ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while Minnesota ranks 25th (4.1).
The Timberwolves rank fifth in points in the paint per game (47.7) while the Thunder rank 21st (41.9).
Oklahoma City ranks 16th in three pointers attempted per game (29.0) while Minnesota ranks 28th (22.8).
The Thunder rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Timberwolves rank 13th (15.7).
Minnesota ranks seventh in second chance points per game (14.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 16th in second chance points allowed per game (12.4).
The Timberwolves are second in the NBA with 41.2 rebounds allowed per game while the Thunder are fourth with 41.3 rebounds allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.8, up from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 107.6 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.4 points per game (8.6 below their season average).
