The Miami Heat (25-18) travel to Milwaukee to play the Bucks (23-20) in what should be a low-scoring game. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.
Milwaukee opened as a 4-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 201.5 points.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The Heat are trying to rebound after their 119-111 loss to the Chicago Bulls in their last game. Chicago’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Miami. The Bulls had a rate of 16.3 (below their season average of 19.8), while the Heat posted a mark of 9.5 (below their season average of 20.1). Goran Dragic was Miami’s leading scorer with 22 points on 7-for-17 shooting.
In the Bucks’ last game, they defeated the Washington Wizards, 104-95. The Bucks forced 23 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9 (above their season average of 19.0). Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee in scoring with 27 points on 9-for-23 shooting.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Milwaukee ranks 26th in possessions per game (97.1) and Miami is 27th (96.8).
Miami holds records of 25-18 straight up (SU) and 19-22-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 43 games, 24 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 23-20 SU and 19-19-5 ATS. Contrary to Miami, Bucks games have typically finished over the total (55.8 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Dragic (20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists) has been great for the Heat while Malcolm Brogdon (13.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists) has made solid contributions to the Bucks.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Bucks lost 97-79, unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. Antetokounmpo recorded 22 points and six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 176 points, which was 27.5 points below the projected point total of 203.5 points. Miami’s 0.533 effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 0.342.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 13-9 ATS with 13 unders, 8 overs and 1 push.
Milwaukee is 8-11-3 ATS at home with 12 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Milwaukee is 9-3 and Miami is 15-3.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Bucks are 19-11 and the Heat are 18-7.
Miami ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (24.3).
The Bucks rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.5) while the Heat rank 28th (7.6).
Milwaukee ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (47.5) while Miami ranks 26th (41.0).
The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (20.0) while the Bucks rank 13th (22.4).
Milwaukee averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Miami ranks 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.2).
The Bucks rank fourth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Heat rank 11th (7.5).
Milwaukee ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Miami ranks 10th (4.6).
The Heat rank 23rd in rebounds per game (41.8) while the Bucks rank last (38.7).
Milwaukee is 28th in the NBA with 10.0 second chance points per game while Miami is 29th with 9.7 second chance points per game.
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Heat have outscored opponents by an average of 4.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has lost by an average of 0.7 points.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 96.6 points per game (8.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.4 points per game (3.5 below their season average).
