The Atlanta Hawks (12-31) square off with the New Orleans Pelicans (23-20) at Philips Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220 points with New Orleans set as a 3-point favorite.
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks ATS Prediction
The Pelicans will be hoping for a similar result after edging the Boston Celtics in their last matchup, 116-113. The Pelicans made 19 of their 25 free throws (76.0 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 11.9 (better than their season average of 14.1). New Orleans was lifted by Anthony Davis, who was the game’s high scorer with 45 points on 16-for-34 shooting.
In the Hawks’ last matchup, they won a close one over the San Antonio Spurs, 102-99. Atlanta’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over San Antonio. The Hawks had a rate of 27.5 (above their season average of 22.8), while the Spurs posted a mark of 17.0 (below their season average of 23.2). Dennis Schroder was the game’s high scorer with 26 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, New Orleans figures to have a significant edge. The elite Pelicans offense ranks second in the league in that metric at 0.553, while the suspect Atlanta defense is ranked 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540).
New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 23-20 straight up (SU) and 23-19 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 25 of their 42 games have gone over the total.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-31 SU and 23-18-2 ATS. Of the Hawks’ 43 games, 21 have finished over the projected point total.
Jrue Holiday has averaged 19.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.8 steals and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for New Orleans.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Kent Bazemore put up 22 points and seven assists in the first matchup, in which the Hawks lost 106-105 but covered as 9.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 211 points, which was 6 points below the projected point total of 217 points. New Orleans had a better free throw rate (0.147 vs. 0.092). Atlanta, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (15.0 vs. 18.7).
New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, New Orleans is 13-9 ATS with 11 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Atlanta is 11-9 ATS with 11 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
When allowing below 100 points, Atlanta is 5-3 and New Orleans is 7-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Hawks are 12-18 and the Pelicans are 21-14.
New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (26.3) while Atlanta ranks 29th in assists allowed per game (25.6).
The Pelicans rank second in points in the paint per game (50.4) while the Hawks rank 26th (41.0).
Atlanta ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.8) while New Orleans ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.3).
The Hawks average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 26th in steals allowed per game (8.8).
Atlanta ranks 11th in second chance points per game (13.0) while New Orleans ranks 25th in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
The Pelicans average 29.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 14th in the league. The Hawks rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (30.9).
New Orleans averages 5.1 blocks per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Atlanta ranks 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
The Pelicans average 13.0 fast break points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. The Hawks rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (12.0).
New Orleans ranks 18th in rebounds per game (42.9) while Atlanta ranks 25th (40.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Atlanta is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 0.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (1.1 above their season average).
