The Valparaiso Crusaders (11-8, 2-4 MVC) head to Missouri State to take on the Bears (14-5, 4-2 MVC) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, and will air on ESPN 3.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 139 points with Missouri State set as a 7.5-point favorite.
Valparaiso Crusaders vs. Missouri State Bears ATS Prediction
The Crusaders are hoping for a better outcome after their 81-76 loss to the UNI Panthers in their last outing. UNI was successful at getting and making free throws. The Panthers made 31 of their 38 free throws (81.6 percent), while the Crusaders were just 9-16 (56.3 percent). Markus Golder put together a good game for Valparaiso, contributing 18 points and six rebounds.
In the Bears’ last matchup, they barely escaped the Indiana State Sycamores, 76-73. Missouri State’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Indiana State. The Bears had a rate of 32.3 (below their season average of 35.3), while the Sycamores posted a mark of 25.8. Alize Johnson was the game’s high scorer with 21 points on 7-for-11 shooting.
Points could be at a premium in this meeting between a pair of the NCAA’s top defenses. Missouri State currently ranks 34th in defensive efficiency (94.8) and Valparaiso is 41st (95.6).
Valparaiso holds records of 11-8 straight up (SU) and 8-8 against the spread (ATS). Crusaders games tend to go under the total (62.5 percent).
Meanwhile, Missouri State owns records of 14-5 SU and 8-8 ATS. Similarly to Valparaiso, games involving the Bears also have typically finished under the total (62.5 percent).
Johnson has averaged 18.2 points and 13.8 rebounds over the last five games for Missouri State.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Crusaders lost 67-50, unable to cover as 0-point favorites. Max Joseph put up 13 points and five rebounds. The game finished with a total of 117 points, which was 19.5 points below the projected point total of 136.5 points. The Bears had a much better turnover percentage (12.1 vs. 22.6) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 20.0).
Valparaiso Crusaders vs. Missouri State Bears Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Valparaiso, ATS Winner – Valparaiso, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Valparaiso is 5-6 ATS on the road with 7 unders and 4 overs.
Missouri State is 3-3 ATS at home with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Valparaiso ranks 28th in steals per game (8.0) while Missouri State ranks 184th (4.9).
The Bears rank 14th in assists allowed per game (10.2) while the Crusaders rank 133rd (13.5).
Missouri State ranks 19th in rebounds per game (40.4) while Valparaiso ranks 104th (36.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Valparaiso is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Missouri State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Crusaders have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Valparaiso has defeated opponents by an average of 5.4 points.
During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 65.6 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 62.8 points per game (0.1 above their season average).
