The New Mexico Lobos (8-11, 3-3 MWC) travel to UNLV to take on the Runnin’ Rebels (13-4, 2-2 MWC) in a game that will likely be up-tempo. The game starts at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018.
UNLV opened as an 8.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 163 points.
New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Prediction
The Lobos are hoping for a better outcome after their 89-80 loss to the Fresno State Bulldogs in their last outing. Fresno State’s 0.745 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over New Mexico, who had a mark of 0.593. The Bulldogs’ mark was above their season average of 0.558. Makuach Maluach led New Mexico in scoring with 21 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
In the Runnin’ Rebels’ last matchup, they beat the Air Force Falcons, 81-76. UNLV had an effective field goal percentage of 0.728 (above their season average of 0.558). Air Force, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 40.0 (above their season average of 29.3). Jordan Johnson led UNLV in scoring with 20 points on 5-for-9 shooting.
There could be a fair amount of transition offense in this battle that features a pair of the NCAA’s more up-tempo teams. UNLV currently ranks 11th in possessions per game (76.5) and New Mexico is 54th (73.3).
New Mexico heads into the game with records of 8-11 straight up (SU) and 9-8 against the spread (ATS). Of the Lobos’ 16 games with betting action, nine have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, UNLV is 13-4 SU and 8-9 ATS. Unlike New Mexico, games including the Runnin’ Rebels have typically gone over the O/U total (87.5 percent).
Anthony Mathis has averaged 13.8 points over the last five games for New Mexico.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Lobos won the last matchup 80-77. The Lobos had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.435) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (44.1 vs. 40.0).
New Mexico Lobos vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Mexico is 3-5 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 3 overs.
At home, UNLV is 6-5 ATS with 10 overs and 0 unders.
New Mexico ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while UNLV ranks 261st (16.3).
The Runnin’ Rebels rank 15th in rebounds per game (41.0) while the Lobos rank 218th in rebounds allowed per game (37.5).
UNLV ranks 16th in assists per game (17.9) while New Mexico ranks 129th in assists allowed per game (13.4).
The Lobos average 7.6 steals per game, which ranks 40th in the nation. The Runnin’ Rebels rank 142nd in steals allowed per game (6.9).
UNLV averages 4.3 blocks per game, which ranks 60th in the NCAA. New Mexico ranks 98th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Mexico is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
UNLV is 0-5 ATS with 5 overs over their last five games.
The Lobos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 4.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Runnin’ Rebels have scored an average of 81.8 points per game (6.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 82.2 points per game (7.0 above their season average).
