The Fresno State Bulldogs (13-6, 3-3 MWC) travel to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs (11-5, 3-2 MWC) in a matchup that pits phenomenal offense against stifling defense. The game gets underway at 11 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 146 points with San Diego State set as a 7-point favorite.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs ATS Prediction
The Bulldogs will be hoping for a similar outcome after defeating the New Mexico Lobos in their last matchup, 89-80. The Bulldogs, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.558, had an absurd mark of 0.745 and had a free throw rate of 0.327 (above their season average of 0.279). Fresno State was lifted by Deshon Taylor, who was the game’s high scorer with 22 points on 5-for-9 shooting.
In the Aztecs’ last matchup, they lost a close one to the Boise State Broncos, 83-80. Boise State’s 0.255 free throw rate was their largest strength over San Diego State, who had a rate of 0.154. The Broncos’ mark was above their season average of 0.220, while the Aztecs’ was below their season average of 0.258. With 19 points on 6-for-13 shooting, Devin Watson was San Diego State’s high scorer.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the high-powered offense of Fresno State takes on the top-notch defense of San Diego State. The Bulldogs rank 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Aztecs are 17th in defensive efficiency.
Fresno State is 13-6 straight up (SU), but they struggle covering the spread (5-10 against the spread (ATS)). Games featuring the Bulldogs have typically finished over the projected point total (66.7 percent).
Meanwhile, San Diego State is 11-5 SU and 10-4 ATS. Games involving the Aztecs also tend to go over the total (57.1 percent).
Jalen McDaniels has averaged 13.2 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals over the last five games for San Diego State.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last game, the Bulldogs won 63-55. The Bulldogs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 26.5) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.490 vs. 0.385).
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Fresno State is 3-4 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 1 under.
At home, San Diego State is 5-1 ATS with 5 unders and 1 over.
Fresno State ranks 32nd in three pointers allowed per game (18.7) while San Diego State ranks 197th (24.0).
The Aztecs rank 34th in rebounds per game (39.7) while the Bulldogs rank 186th (34.7).
Fresno State ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (4.9) while San Diego State ranks 138th (6.9).
The Bulldogs rank 48th in assists allowed per game (11.6) while the Aztecs rank 85th (12.6).
Fresno State averages 3.6 blocks per game, which ranks 94th in the nation. San Diego State ranks 103rd in blocks allowed per game (3.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Fresno State is 0-5 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
San Diego State is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 10.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aztecs have scored an average of 78.0 points per game (0.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.2 points per game (2.4 above their season average).
