It will be a battle between OVC opponents when the Belmont Bruins (13-6, 5-1 OVC) welcome the Murray State Racers (13-4, 5-1 OVC) to Curb Event Center. The game can be seen on ESPNU at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 18, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 141.5 points with Belmont set as a 1.5-point favorite.
Murray State Racers vs. Belmont Bruins ATS Prediction
In the Racers’ last outing, they dismantled the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles, 71-45. The Racers were 9-11 from the free throw line (81.8 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.7 (above their season average of 34.7). Murray State received a boost from Terrell Miller Jr., who contributed 15 points and 10 rebounds.
The Bruins defeated the Eastern Illinois Panthers in their last matchup, 75-66. Belmont was lights out from beyond the arc (13-25; 52.0 percent). Eastern Illinois, on the other hand, forced the Bruins into a turnover percentage of 24.7 (above their season average of 17.4). Dylan Windler was Belmont’s high scorer with 25 points on 9-for-13 shooting.
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Belmont ranks 268th in possessions per game (68.2) and Murray State is 289th (67.8). Additionally, the Racers rank 35th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.0 percent), while the Bruins rank 51st in defensive rebounding percentage (74.8 percent).
Murray State comes into the contest with records of 13-4 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Racers are involved, as 57.1 percent of their games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Belmont owns records of 13-6 SU and 10-5-2 ATS. Contrary to Murray State, just over half of Bruins games have finished under the total.
Jonathan Stark has averaged 27.0 points and 3.4 assists over the last five games for Murray State.
After the Bruins won the lone contest against the Racers last season, 81-69, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Bruins had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.429) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (30.3 vs. 26.2).
Murray State Racers at Belmont Bruins Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Murray State, ATS Winner – Murray State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Murray State is 3-3 ATS on the road with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Belmont is 3-3-2 ATS at home with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Belmont ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (31.2) while Murray State ranks 134th (22.1).
The Racers rank 11th in assists allowed per game (9.9) while the Bruins rank 62nd (11.9).
Belmont ranks 44th in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while Murray State ranks 74th (3.3).
The Racers rank 99th in steals per game (6.5) while the Bruins rank 127th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
Murray State ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (31.0) while Belmont ranks 45th (32.1).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Murray State is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Belmont is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Racers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 15.0, down from 15.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bruins have scored an average of 71.2 points per game (4.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 63.2 points per game (6.8 below their season average).
