Offense meets defense when the Saint Mary’s Gaels (17-2, 6-0 WCC) travel to Gonzaga to take on the No. 13 Bulldogs (16-3, 6-0 WCC). The game begins at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 18, 2018.
Gonzaga is a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 149 points.
Saint Mary’s Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs ATS Prediction
In the Gaels’ last contest, they thoroughly outplayed the Pepperdine Waves, 91-67. The Gaels held the Waves to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.2 (below their season average of 31.5) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.731 (above their season average of 0.590). With 32 points on 13-for-15 shooting, Jock Landale was the game’s leading scorer.
The Bulldogs defeated the San Francisco Dons in their last game, 75-65. The Bulldogs held the Dons to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.0 (below their season average of 31.1). The Dons had a free throw rate of 0.158 (below their season average of 0.206). Johnathan Williams III led Gonzaga in scoring with 17 points on 7-for-12 shooting.
This showdown figures to be a shootout as a pair of the nation’s top offenses face off. Gonzaga currently ranks fourth with 122.9 points per 100 possessions and Saint Mary’s is third (124.9).
Saint Mary’s holds records of 17-2 straight up (SU) and 7-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Gaels games, with 8 unders compared to 6 overs.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga is 16-3 SU and 9-7 ATS. Of the Bulldogs’ 16 games that accepted bets, 9 have finished over the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Landale (21.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks) has been fantastic for the Gaels while Rui Hachimura (14.6 points) has made great contributions to the Bulldogs.
After the Bulldogs won all three meetings against the Gaels last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the last contest, Gonzaga won 74-56. The Bulldogs made 16 of their 20 free throws (80.0 percent) and had a much better turnover percentage (12.5 vs. 18.9).
Saint Mary’s Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Gonzaga, ATS Winner – Gonzaga, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Saint Mary’s is 5-3 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 3 unders.
At home, Gonzaga is 5-2 ATS with 5 overs and 2 unders.
Gonzaga ranks seventh in rebounds per game (41.4) while Saint Mary’s ranks 209th (33.6).
The Bulldogs rank 34th in three pointers attempted per game (26.4) while the Gaels rank 202nd (19.9).
Gonzaga averages 17.6 assists per game, which ranks 21st in the nation. Saint Mary’s ranks 77th in assists allowed per game (12.4).
The Gaels rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (5.1) while the Bulldogs rank 64th (5.7).
Gonzaga is 17th in the nation with 2.3 blocks allowed per game while Saint Mary’s is 54th with 2.9 blocks allowed per game.
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Saint Mary’s is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Gonzaga is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Gaels’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.6, up from 15.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 90.6 points per game (0.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 59.8 points per game (9.6 below their season average).
