A Championship Weekend that started out with all the intrigue of an episode of Dora the Explorer has turned into a an Agatha Christie page-turner. We’ll get to see the whole drama play out early Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (14-3).
This game morphed from an eye-roller to the can’t miss game of the week. You can watch it on your local CBS affiliate at 3:05 p.m. EST.
The Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
O/U: 47.0
The History
The Patriots and Jaguars have faced off 11 times since 1996 with New England holding a 10-1 overall advantage.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (12-6)
Last week in my Titans vs Patriots preview, I outlined what would need to happen for Tennessee to win the game. The first and most important step was to knock Tom Brady out of the contest, intentionally or otherwise. They didn’t and, of course, lost.
Now, I’m not advocating injuring a player on purpose. It’s bullshit and we all know it when we see it. But the Jaguars got the gift of all gifts this week when Brady injured his throwing hand in practice, apparently during a hand off. He missed field work Wednesday and Thursday and was seen wearing a glove. He’s officially questionable on the injury report. What the hell is happening?
Blake Bortles is 🔥 against Super Bowl-winning QBs. pic.twitter.com/sP9DrIgU6R
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 19, 2018
Before we get into that, let’s look at what Jacksonville has going for it coming into this game besides the entire support of Western Civilization and the NBC Show, The Good Place.
They have the best defense in football and are solid at every level. They can pressure from the outside with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue and inside with Malik Jackson. Marcell Dareus has caused Brady problems before with the Buffalo Bills and he’s coming off the bench in the rotation.
Leonard Fournette is a stud running back, but just count on Matt Patricia devising a gameplan that takes him away. That means the offense will be all about how many times Blake Bortles can drop back to pass without shitting himself.
https://twitter.com/BortlesFacts/status/952978700064010240
Here’s the X-Factor. Head coach Doug Marrone has beaten Brady and Belichick before with the Bills with far less talent than he has in Jacksonville.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-3)
If you thought I was speaking in hyperbole when I wrote my NFL Divisional Round Wrap Up Monday, dig this sweet science. Literally, it’s science. The website 538 ran the numbers and, without a doubt, the Patriots have the easiest road to a Super Bowl in modern NFL history. Going back a week, they had a 54.8 percent probability of making the Super Bowl based on who they were going to face in the Divisional and Championship rounds. The next closest was the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles who were at 54.6.
Keenum and Brady are elite with defenders in their faces. https://t.co/aqPtQbRjhw pic.twitter.com/puS1p1JDdP
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) January 19, 2018
I stated in my wrap up that if New England doesn’t hoist the Lombardi Trophy in a three weeks it should go down as one of the worst choke jobs in the history of sport. I stand by that, even with the news of Brady’s hand issues.
How bad is it? Well, it’s bad enough that he hasn’t practiced since he hurt it and he’s been wearing a glove so no media or photographers covering the workouts can look at it. When Brady took the podium Friday to speak to reporters, right after stealing Vanity Smurf’s hat, he refused to acknowledge he even had a hand.
Hat from the Vanity Smurf collection. #GoPats #TomBrady pic.twitter.com/KW3MN8mzrV
— Adam Greene (@TheFirstMan) January 19, 2018
When asked if he will play and how his hand was, Brady replied, “We’ll see… I’m not talking about that.”
Head coach Bill Belichick was just as will to toss out pure nuggets like, “We gave out the injury report yesterday. We’ll update it today.”
So, with that, what do we know?
Well, Brady is hurt. He’s officially, as of Friday, listed as “questionable” on the Patriots injury report. Does that mean he won’t play? I mean, hell no. Brady is going to play.
Question: Is QB Tom Brady going to be a game-time decision?#Patriots coach Bill Belichick: "It's Friday."
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 19, 2018
How effective will he be? That’s the question. Hand strength has a lot more to do with throwing downfield than you’d think. It’s why hand size in a quarterback is something people look at. With Julian Edelman out this season, New England has used the downfield game more, with Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan as Brady’s two favorite targets. If he has any real hand issues, this significantly shrinks the field.
Here’s what’s scary for New England, if they still had Jimmy Garoppolo, this wouldn’t even be a worry. So Brady starts, but can’t go or gets hit on the hand again and has to go out of the game. Big deal, Garoppolo comes in and you still walk into the Super Bowl.
Two tidbits from #Patriots QB Tom Brady’s thumb injury: 1. It was gushing blood when it happened. 2. He was “zinging it pretty good today,” source said.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 19, 2018
Now, though, it’s Brian Hoyer. That changes everything, especially facing the best defense in the NFL. If Brady does come out at any point in this game, it could be curtains for Super Bowl trip No. 8. And considering Brady is 40 years old and the team, as of today, has no transition plan for a new quarterback, this could be it for good. Could this one hand injury in practice spell the end of the Evil Empire? God, I have to quit typing this stuff. I’m getting too excited.
Fun Fact
This is the seventh consecutive AFC Championship appearance for the Patriots and the 15th since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.
The Pick
It’s no secret that I’m having a shitshow of a playoffs this season. I’m certainly not the only one, but the fact that I’m not swimming in this cesspool alone doesn’t make me feel any better. But, listen, there’s a reason this line hasn’t moved even after Brady’s hand injury was revealed and he missed two days of practice. The most it’s dropped anywhere is to -7.5. If the Steelers were rolling into Gillette, everything would be different, but they blew their shot. Marrone has beaten Belichick before and a healthy Brady has wilted under the pressure of his defense. I’d love nothing more than to see the Jaguars hoist the Lamar Hunt trophy and go to the Super Bowl. I don’t think it’ll happen. I do think they’ll keep New England from covering. Patriots 27, Jaguars 23
Last week
Straight up: 1-3
Against the spread: 1-3
Playoffs
Straight up: 3-5
Against the spread: 3-5
Season
Straight up: 160-104
Against the spread: 123-135
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